关键词: 城市体系规模结构, 经济发展, 工业碳排放

Abstract: The scale structure of urban system has an important influence on the industrial carbon emission intensity. This study undertakes an empirical analysis on their relationship by conducting a dynamic panel data model test by system GMM estimation method using the provincial panel data of China of the period 2006—2013. The results show that the industrial carbon emission intensity is in an U-shaped relationship with the concentration levels of their urban system. Compared with the over dispersion or over concentration of the urban system, the coordinated development of large, medium and small sized cities is a more effective way to reduce industrial carbon emission intensity. It follows that the higher economic development level, the stronger the U-shaped effects on the industrial carbon emission intensity would be produced. This shows that the negative effect of urban system structural imbalance to reduce industrial carbon emissions will not automatically ease with economic development, so regulations and policies for optimizing the structure of urban system will be needed.

Key words: scale structure of urban system, economic development, industrial carbon emission