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The Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction Effects and Mechanisms of Low-Carbon Pilot Policies: Evidence from Double Machine Learning
Zeng Huasheng, Cheng Long, Tao Ling
2026 (05):
121-133.
Under the dual constraints of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and food security, the low-carbon transformation of agriculture has become an urgent practical challenge. Existing studies have separately examined low-carbon pilot policies and agricultural carbon emissions, yet few integrate the two, leaving the direction and transmission channels of such effects theoretically uncertain. This paper uses panel data for 290 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2023, treats the implementation of low-carbon pilot policies as a quasi-natural experiment, and employs double machine learning, mechanism analysis, a spatial Durbin model, and spatial spillover boundary analysis, together with a city-year index of the agricultural embeddedness of local pilot policies constructed from policy texts, to systematically examine the impact of these policies on agricultural carbon emissions. The results show that low-carbon pilot policies significantly reduce agricultural carbon emissions in pilot cities, and the findings remain robust across a series of tests. The effects are more pronounced in the first and third batches of pilot areas, cities with higher fiscal autonomy, cities with relatively scarce agricultural labor, and cities with stronger agricultural embeddedness in local policies. The policies reduce agricultural carbon emissions mainly by enhancing agriculture-related technology supply, promoting the development of agricultural socialized services, and strengthening green finance support. Spatially, the policies generate both positive and negative spillover effects on agricultural carbon emissions; as distance increases, the crowding-out and siphoning effects gradually outweigh the diffusion and learning effects. Accordingly, the linkage between low-carbon pilot policies and agricultural mitigation tasks should be strengthened, the systems for agriculture-related green technology supply, socialized services, and green finance support should be improved, and cross-regional collaborative governance should be enhanced to promote the low-carbon transformation of agriculture.
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