贵州财经大学学报

›› 2016 ›› Issue (01): 14-24.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

倾向中西部的土地供给如何推升了房价——基于空间德宾模型的实证分析

文乐, 彭代彦   

  1. 华中科技大学 经济学院, 武汉 湖北 430074
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-01 出版日期:2017-01-15 发布日期:2016-01-11
  • 作者简介:文乐(1989-),男,湖南益阳人,华中科技大学经济学院博士研究生,研究方向为发展经济学,城市经济学;彭代彦(1964-),男,湖北仙桃人,博士,华中科技大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,研究方向为发展经济学、福利经济学。
  • 基金资助:

    湖北省社会科学基金一般项目“偏向中西部的土地供给政策如何推升了房价”（编号：2015198）；中央高校基本科研业务费资助（HUST编号：2014WZ06）。

How the Biased Land Supply Pushes up House Prices-Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Durbin Model

WEN Le, PENG Dai-yan   

  1. School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China
  • Received:2016-08-01 Online:2017-01-15 Published:2016-01-11

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摘要： 利用2001-2013年的281个地级市及以上城市面板数据，运用空间计量模型，研究土地供给对房价的空间影响，并进一步分析中国房价快速上涨的成因。研究发现：首先，从全国来看，房价对土地供给的总弹性为-0.0532，说明土地供给减少推高房价；土地供给的空间溢出效应显著为负，若不考虑空间溢出效应，将会高估土地供给对房价的直接效应。其次，土地供给的空间效应还存在时空差异，2003年后东部土地供给的空间效应大于中西部地区，表明土地供给政策向中西部倾斜导致东部地区房价进一步上涨。此外，研究还发现工业用地面积占比对房价也有重要影响。因此，为抑制房价过快上涨，需要深化土地供给侧改革，增加东部土地供给总量，并调整土地供给结构，防止工业用地过度扩张。

关键词: 房价, 空间计量, 土地供给, 空间溢出效应

Abstract: Using panel data of 281 cities from 2001 to 2013 and employing spatial econometric models, this paper studies the reasons of the rise in house prices and spatial effects of land supply on house prices. Our empirical analysis comes to the following conclusions:the total effect of land supply for national house prices is -0.0532, which shows that land supply plays an important role in house prices; land supply has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on house prices, its role in regional house prices will be overestimated if spatial spillover effect was neglected. Besides, spatial effect is different in time and space. The influence of spatial effect of land supply on house prices is greater in the east than that in the Midwest China since 2003, which shows that the biased policy of land supply has led to a further rise of house prices in the east. In addition, we found that the ratio of industrial land has important influence on house prices. Therefore, in order to rein in house prices from rising too fast, it is necessary to deepen the reform of land supply, increase amount of land supply and adjust land structure to prevent the excessive expansion of industrial land.

Key words: house prices, spatial econometrics, land supply, spatial spillover effect

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