关键词: “一带一路”倡议, 大战略理论, 风险评估

Abstract: The Belt and Road initiative concerns the development of China and the world, and a clear ranking of its risks involved from the Grand Strategy theory would help optimize the allocation of limited resources. Based on quantitatively measuring initiative objective and means of "The Belt and Road", then through the Vector Autoregressive method applied to the analysis of the objective and means, and those among the means, we hope to determine the ranking of risks by intensity. Take Singapore as an example, the ranking of risks is consistent with the empirical facts. For China, it is imperative to formulate a macro-level coordination of its initiative means, along with making hedges with political means. The above attempts, based on cross sectional data of Singapore, are expected to lay the foundation for future research using multiple country panel data.

Key words: “The Belt and Road&rdquo, initiative, grand strategy theroy, risk assessment