贵州财经大学学报

›› 2019 ›› Issue (02): 24-30.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

产业高级化对经济增长的作用研究——基于我国产业结构演进的实证分析

张明, 胡壮程, 薛泽帅   

  1. 山西财经大学, 山西 太原 030006
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-28 出版日期:2019-03-15 发布日期:2019-03-25
  • 作者简介:张明(1974-),男,山西太原人,山西财经大学博士,硕士生导师,研究方向为宏观经济学和产业经济学;胡壮程(1991-),男,山西沁源人,山西财经大学硕士研究生,研究方向为宏观经济学和产业经济学;薛泽帅(1991-),男,山西临汾人,山西财经大学硕士研究生,研究方向为宏观经济学和产业经济学。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目《煤炭资源绿色低碳发展理论与政策》，项目编号：71774105；山西省资源型经济转型协同创新中心专项基金《煤炭资源清洁利用视角下深化山西能源体制改革路径》，项目编号：ZX2017315。

Research on the Role of Industrial Advancement in Economic Growth-An Empirical Analysis Based on the Evolution of China's Industrial Structure

ZHANG Ming, HU Zhuang-cheng, XUE Ze-shuai   

  1. School of Economics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030006 China
  • Received:2018-08-28 Online:2019-03-15 Published:2019-03-25

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摘要： 以Baumol非平衡增长理论为基础，运用转换份额分析法进行实证检验，通过构建三部门分析模型研究第三产业比重提高对经济增长的促进作用。结果表明，工业化前期和中期，农业人口向工业和服务业转移，服务业在产业结构中占比的提高促进了经济增长。工业化后期，工业技术的发展挤出劳动力，人口被迫向服务业转移，生活性服务业份额的扩大抑制经济增长，但若以生产性服务业为主体的服务业的份额扩大，则能促进经济增长。

关键词: 第三产业比重, 经济增长, 结构变迁效应, 技术进步效应

Abstract: Based on Baumol's theory of unbalanced growth, this paper uses the method of transformation share analysis to carry out empirical tests, and constructs a three-sector analysis model to study the promotion of tertiary industry to economic growth. The results show that in the early and middle stages of industrialization, the agricultural population has shifted to industry and service industry, and the increase of the proportion of service industry in the industrial structure has promoted economic growth. In the latter stage of industrialization, the development of industrial technology squeezes out the labor force, the population is forced to transfer to the service industry, and the expansion of the share of the life service industry inhibits economic growth. However, if the share of the service industry with the producer service industry as the main body expands, it can promote economic growth.

Key words: the proportion of tertiary industry, economic growth, the effect of structural change, the effect of technological progress

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