贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2022 ›› Issue (01): 100-110.

• 绿色发展论坛 • 上一篇    

碳中和导向下丝绸之路经济带沿线省份经济发展与生态环境的协同演进研究

郑玉雯, 薛伟贤   

  1. 西安工程大学管理学院, 陕西 西安 710048;西安理工大学经济与管理学院, 陕西 西安 710048
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-09 出版日期:2022-01-15 发布日期:2022-02-23
  • 作者简介:郑玉雯(1984—), 女, 陕西西安人, 博士, 西安工程大学管理学院讲师, 研究方向为社会经济系统优化与管理、绿色发展;薛伟贤(1967—), 男, 陕西西安人, 博士生导师, 西安理工大学经济与管理学院教授, 研究方向为社会经济系统优化与管理、绿色发展战略
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目"丝绸之路经济带生产网络与生态环境协同发展研究"(17BJL005);国家自然科学基金青年项目"双重价值链嵌入对我国纺织业企业污染减排的影响机制及减排路径研究"(72103160)

Research on the coordinated evolution of economic development and ecological environment of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt under the guidance of carbon neutralization

ZHENG Yu-wen, XUE Wei-xian   

  1. School of Management, Xi'an Polytechnic University, Xi'an 710048, China; College of Economic and Management, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
  • Received:2021-06-09 Online:2022-01-15 Published:2022-02-23

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摘要： 在碳中和目标背景下, 基于系统论研究视阈, 运用协同学哈肯模型测度2011~2020年间丝绸之路经济带沿线省份经济发展与生态环境的协同度, 并进一步以实现碳中和目标为约束条件, 利用Logistic演化方程模型探明二者的协同演进趋势。结果表明: 研究期内, 丝绸之路经济带沿线9省区经济发展与生态环境的协同度整体偏低, 仅新疆和陕西两省区经济发展与生态环境的协同度均值大于0.5, 其余7省区经济发展与生态环境的协同度均值均小于0.5;进一步以实现碳中和为目标加入制度环境这一约束条件, 利用Logistic方程预判二者的协同演进趋势, 研究发现, 丝绸之路经济带沿线9省区经济发展与生态环境的协同度显著提高。这表明驱动丝绸之路经济带沿线省份经济发展与生态环境协同的序参量由比较优势转变为制度环境。值得关注的是, 序参量的转变反映出"一带一路"倡议与我国新发展格局的同频共振是丝绸之路经济带经济发展与生态环境协同共生的重要引擎。

关键词: 碳中和导向, 丝绸之路经济带沿线省份, 经济发展, 生态环境, 协同演进

Abstract: Under the background of carbon neutralization goal, based on the research horizon of system theory, the synergetic Haken Model is used to measure the synergy between economic development and ecological environment of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020, and further take the realization of carbon neutralization goal as the constraint condition, the logistic evolution equation model is used to explore the synergistic evolution trend of the two. The results show that during the study period, the synergy between economic development and ecological environment in 9 provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt is generally low. The average synergy between economic development and ecological environment in Xinjiang and Shaanxi is greater than 0.5, and the average synergy between economic development and ecological environment in the other 7 provinces is less than 0.5; Further, with the goal of carbon neutralization, adding the constraint of institutional environment, and using logistic equation to predict the collaborative evolution trend of the two, it is found that the synergy between economic development and ecological environment in 9 provinces and regions along the Silk Road Economic Belt has been significantly improved. This shows that the order parameter driving the synergy between economic development and ecological environment of provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt has changed from comparative advantage to institutional environment. Silk Road Economic Belt one belt, one road initiative, and the new development pattern of China are the important engines for the economic development and ecological environment of the Silk Road Economic Belt.

Key words: carbon neutral orientation, provinces along the silk road economic belt, economic development, ecological environment, collaborative evolution

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