贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2024 ›› Issue (01): 11-20.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

GDP国际比较方法及中美GDP相对变化趋势

李兆辰1,2, 韩天阔3, 高宇宁3   

  1. 1. 中国社会科学院, 北京 100732;
    2. 中国数量经济学会, 北京 100732;
    3. 清华大学, 北京 100084
  • 收稿日期:2023-01-10 出版日期:2024-01-15 发布日期:2024-01-30
  • 作者简介:李兆辰(1993—),男,博士,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所助理研究员,研究方向为政策评估、创新经济学;韩天阔(1995—),男,清华大学公共管理学院博士生,研究方向为区域经济学、发展经济学;高宇宁(1979—),男,博士,清华大学公共管理学院长聘副教授、博士生导师,清华大学国情研究院副研究员,研究方向为国际经济学、投入产出分析。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目"全球价值链视角下中国地区及行业真实增加值与真实生产率核算及其决定因素与政策分析框架研究"(71873075);中国社会科学院研究所实验室综合资助项目"经济大数据与政策评估实验室"(2024SYZH004)。

The International Comparison Method of GDP and the Relative Trends of GDP Changes between China and the United States

LI Zhaochen1,2, HAN Tiankuo3, GAO Yuning3   

  1. 1. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China;
    2. Chinese Association of Quantitative Economics, Beijing 100732, China;
    3. Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:2023-01-10 Online:2024-01-15 Published:2024-01-30

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摘要： GDP是衡量国家经济规模和世界经济格局的关键指标,然而在理论和实践中对于GDP国际比较方法尚未形成共识。本文阐释了GDP国际比较的三类主要方法及各自的特点与局限,认为其本质差异在于转换因子的选择,在此基础上分析了中美GDP在1990~2020年的相对变化趋势,分别从总量视角和分产业分行业的结构视角进行分析。研究发现,中国GDP迅速追赶美国,尤其在制造业方面显著超越美国,但是不同方法测算的相对变动程度差异较大。汇率法在计算上较为简便,但受到汇率波动等因素的影响较大;购买力平价法在原理上较为合理,但在操作性和可比性上较弱;替代法在数据上较为可靠,但理论依据和客观性较弱。本研究深化了对于GDP国际比较方法理论本质的认识,测算了中美GDP总量和结构的相对变化趋势,可为进一步完善GDP国际比较方法提供借鉴。

关键词: 国内生产总值, 国际比较, 购买力平价, 经济增长, GDP F222

Abstract: GDP is a key indicator for measuring the size of a country’s economy and the world economic pattern, but there is no consensus on the international comparison method of GDP in theory and practice. This article explains the three main methods of GDP international comparison and their respective characteristics and limitations. It is believed that the essential difference lies in the selection of conversion factors. Based on this, the relative trend of GDP changes between China and the United States from 1990 to 2020 is analyzed from the perspectives of total quantity and industry structure. Research has found that China’s GDP is rapidly catching up with the United States. In manufacturing, in particular, China has significantly surpassed the United States. However, there are significant differences in the relative changes measured by different methods. The exchange rate method is relatively simple in calculation, but is greatly affected by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations; The purchasing power parity method is relatively reasonable in principle, but weak in operability and comparability; The substitution method is relatively reliable in terms of data, but its theoretical basis and objectivity are weak. This study deepens the understanding of the theoretical essence of GDP international comparison methods, calculates the relative trends in the total and structure of GDP between China and the United States, and provides reference for further improving GDP international comparison methods.

Key words: gross domestic product, international comparison, purchasing power parity, economic growth, GDP

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