贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2026 ›› Issue (01): 121-132.

• 人工智能 • 上一篇    

人工智能、资本税的增长和不平等效应——基于多部门DSGE的政策协调性研究

张艳梅1,2, 曲卫华1   

  1. 1. 山西大学 经济与管理学院, 山西 太原 030006;
    2. 山西省社会科学院(山西省人民政府发展研究中心), 山西 太原 030032
  • 收稿日期:2025-01-27 发布日期:2026-01-22
  • 作者简介:张艳梅(1988—),女,山西太原人,博士,山西大学经济与管理学院、山西省社会科学院(山西省人民政府发展研究中心)副研究员,研究方向为数字经济;曲卫华(1982—)(通信作者),男,山西忻州人,博导,山西大学经济与管理学院教授,研究方向为数字经济。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目“人工智能的意向性构造问题研究”(23FZXB046)。

Artificial Intelligence, Capital Tax Growth and Inequality Effects-Research on Policy Coordination Based on Multi Departmental DSGE

ZHANG Yanmei1,2, QU Weihua1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Shanxi University, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030006, China;
    2. Shanxi Academy of Social Sciences(Development Research Center of Shanxi Provincial People's Government) Shanxi, Taiyuan 030032, China
  • Received:2025-01-27 Published:2026-01-22

摘要: 人工智能技术的产业化进程正在重塑全球经济格局,其引发的就业结构变迁、收入分配调整和产业转型升级已成为各国政策制定面临的挑战,如何在技术红利与社会公平之间寻求平衡,成为亟待解决的现实问题。文章通过构建包含人工智能及其资本税的多部门动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),发现人工智能的深化和广化通过就业替代效应压缩了就业规模与工资水平,降低了劳动收入份额;通过扩大群体收入差距进一步引致社会福利损失。对于人工智能“双刃剑”作用,单一的税收政策或货币政策无法同时实现促进新质生产力发展和收入差距收窄的目标,应利用政策“组合拳”对冲政策“副作用”。人工智能政策优化本质是对效率与公平、创新与稳定、技术理性与社会价值的再平衡。研究结果发现,适度的人工智能资本税能够抑制收入极化,通过减弱经济刺激效果和抑制就业挤出效应来缓解劳动收入份额下降,通过收入再分配缩小群体收入差距来改善社会福利。若对人工智能实施紧缩税收政策,对实物资本实施宽松税收政策,配合实施宽松货币政策,总产出将增加,收入差距将收窄。同时,需进一步强化税收与货币政策的长短期协同、跨周期协同,完善劳动力市场技能培训制度,以助力实现人工智能发展与缩小收入差距的多元经济目标。

关键词: 人工智能资本税, 货币政策, 新质生产力发展, 缩小收入差距

Abstract: The industrialization process of artificial intelligence technology is reshaping the global economic pattern, and the changes in employment structure, income distribution adjustment and industrial transformation and upgrading caused by it have become challenges for policy-making in various countries. How to find a balance between technological dividends and social equity has become a practical problem to be solved. By constructing a multi sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) including AI and its capital tax, this study found that the deepening and popularization of AI reduced the employment scale and wage level and reduced the share of labor income through the employment substitution effect; It further leads to the loss of social welfare by expanding the income gap between groups. For the "double-edged sword"effect of artificial intelligence, a single tax policy or monetary policy can not achieve the goal of promoting the development of new productivity and narrowing the income gap at the same time, so we should use the "combination fist"of policy to hedge the "side effects"of policy. The essence of AI policy optimization is to rebalance efficiency and fairness, innovation and stability, technical rationality and social value. This study found that moderate AI capital tax can inhibit income polarization, alleviate the decline of labor income share by weakening the effect of economic stimulus and inhibiting the effect of employment crowding out, and improve social welfare by reducing the income gap between groups through income redistribution. This paper proposes that the total output will increase and the income gap will narrow with the implementation of tight tax policy for artificial intelligence, loose tax policy for physical capital and loose monetary policy. At the same time, it is necessary to further strengthen the long-term and short-term coordination and cross cycle coordination of tax and monetary policy, improve the skill training system of the labor market, and help achieve the goal of diversified economy of artificial intelligence development and narrowing the income gap.

Key words: artificial intelligence tax, monetary policy, new productivity development, narrow the income gap

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