贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2026 ›› Issue (03): 38-48.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    

人口老龄化与银行风险承担——基于银行特征差异的老龄化压力测算

晏景瑞1, 胡家庆2, 徐书林3   

  1. 1. 广州大学 创新创业学院, 广东 广州 510006;
    2. 广东省社会科学界联合会, 广东 广州 510635;
    3. 广东财经大学 文化旅游学院, 广东 广州 510320
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-31 发布日期:2026-05-22
  • 作者简介:晏景瑞(1993—),男,湖南株洲人,博士,广州大学创新创业学院讲师、硕士生导师,研究方向为商业银行、金融科技;胡家庆(1996—),男,广东惠州人,硕士,广东省社会科学界联合会助理研究员,研究方向为人口老龄化与健康经济学;徐书林(1993—)(通信作者),男,江西赣州人,博士,广东财经大学文化旅游学院讲师,硕士生导师,研究方向为公共财政与经济政策。
  • 基金资助:
    广东省哲学社科规划项目"人工智能助推粤港澳大湾区新质生产力发展的机理、效应与策略研究"(GD25YYJ45);广东省哲学社科规划项目"'数实融合’背景下数字金融赋能广东省现代化产业体系建设研究"(GD25YYJ28);国家社科基金项目"国有耐心资本支持未来产业发展的适配机制与制度创新研究"(25CJY004)。

Population Aging and Bank Risk-Taking-Based on the Measurement of Aging Pressure Considering Bank Characteristic Differences

YAN Jingrui1, HU Jiaqin2, XU Shulin3   

  1. 1. School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510006, China;
    2. Guangdong Provincial Federation of Social Sciences, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510635, China;
    3. School of Culture and Tourism, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510320, China
  • Received:2025-03-31 Published:2026-05-22

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摘要： 在深度老龄化背景下,商业银行因经营特征和分支机构布局的差异,所承受的人口老龄化压力存在明显不同,但现有研究多采用区域老龄化数据分析其对银行风险的影响,难以准确反映各银行的风险暴露异质性。本文基于商业银行的经营特征和网点分布,分类测算了201家银行在2010—2023年面临的老龄化压力指数,探讨了其对银行风险承担的具体影响。研究发现:(1)人口老龄化显著加剧了银行的风险承担,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后仍成立;(2)异质性分析发现,人口老龄化对城市商业银行的冲击最为显著,且总部位于人口净迁入城市的银行风险暴露更高;(3)积极财政政策在缓解人口老龄化对银行业风险承担的冲击中发挥了显著的调节作用,其中财政支出和财政赤字维度在提升银行抗风险能力方面表现突出。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 银行风险承担, 积极财政政策, 调节效应

Abstract: In the context of deep population aging, commercial banks face distinctly different population aging pressures due to variations in their operational characteristics and branch layouts. However, existing studies mostly adopt regional aging data to analyze its impact on bank risks, making it difficult to accurately reflect the heterogeneity in risk exposures across individual banks. This paper, based on the operational characteristics and branch distributions of commercial banks, categorizes and calculates the aging pressure index faced by 201 banks from 2010 to 2023, and examines its specific impact on bank risk-taking. The findings are as follows: (1) Population aging significantly exacerbates bank risk-taking, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness tests; (2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of population aging is most significant on city commercial banks, and banks headquartered in cities with net population inflows have higher risk exposures; (3) Active fiscal policy plays a positive moderating role in mitigating the impact of population aging on risk-taking in the banking sector, with fiscal expenditure and fiscal deficit dimensions being particularly prominent in enhancing banks' risk resilience.

Key words: population aging, bank risk-taking, active fiscal policy, moderating effect

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