贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2026 ›› Issue (04): 83-94.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    

过度劳动如何影响农民工生育意愿——基于代际支持的视角

张永峰1, 章激扬2, 路瑶3   

  1. 1. 中共江苏省委党校 经济管理教研部, 江苏 南京 210003;
    2. 中共安徽省委党校 经济学教研部, 安徽 合肥 230022;
    3. 南京大学 经济学院, 江苏 南京 210003
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-18 发布日期:2026-07-22
  • 作者简介:张永峰(1992—),男,湖北咸宁人,中共江苏省委党校讲师,研究方向为宏观经济政策与经济增长;章激扬(1991—),男,安徽芜湖人,中共安徽省委党校讲师,研究方向为产业经济学;路瑶(1978—),女,江苏射阳人,南京大学经济学院副教授,研究方向为转型经济学。
  • 基金资助:
    江苏省委党校(行政学院)系统专项课题"苏南苏北共同富裕的路径选择及其对苏陕协作的实践启示"(ZX25037)。

How Overwork Effect the Fertility Intention of Migrant Workers—From the Perspective of Intergenerational Support

ZHANG Yongfeng1, ZHANG Jiyang2, LU Yao3   

  1. 1. Department of Economics & Management, Party School of the Jiangsu Provincial, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210003, China;
    2. Department of Economics, Party School of the Anhui Provincial, Hefei, Anhui 230022, China;
    3. School of Economics, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210003, China
  • Received:2025-08-18 Published:2026-07-22

摘要: 尽管我国整体人口出生率持续走低,但不同群体之间存在明显差异,其中农民工的生育意愿高于纯农户和城镇居民,因而加强对农民工生育意愿的研究,对减缓我国人口出生率下降的趋势至关重要。现有研究主要从成本-收益观分析居民的生育行为,鲜有从代际支持的利他动机探讨农民工的生育决策。文章利用中国家庭追踪调查数据检验过度劳动对农民工生育意愿的真实影响和作用机制,研究发现:第一,存在过度劳动行为的农民工生育意愿显著更高;第二,过度劳动对农民工生育意愿的影响呈现出明显的非对称性,在男性农民工、低学历农民工和缺乏工作保障的农民工群体中表现更加明显;第三,过度劳动能够提升实际收入,强化工作粘性,提高代际向上流动可能性,从而引起农民工生育意愿上升;第四,重度劳动仍有可能提高农民工生育意愿,但其带来的收入效应小于健康损耗引发的挤出效应,导致重度劳动对农民工生育意愿的影响幅度明显下降;第五,当农民工完成"外地人"到"本地人"的身份转换后,过度劳动对农民工生育意愿的促进作用更加强烈,而在实现身份超越后,过度劳动对农民工生育意愿不再具有明显影响。

关键词: 农民工, 过度劳动, 代际支持, 生育意愿

Abstract: Despite the continuous decline in China’s overall birth rate, there exist significant disparities across different groups. Among them, migrant workers have a substantially higher fertility intention than pure rural households and urban residents. Therefore, strengthening research on the fertility intention of migrant workers is crucial for slowing the downward trend of China,s birth rate. Existing studies mainly analyze residents’ fertility behavior from the perspective of cost-benefit, and few explore the fertility decision-making of migrant workers from the altruistic motivation of intergenerational support. We examine the true impact and mechanism of overwork on the fertility intension of migrant workers using the data of CFPS. The study found that: firstly, migrant workers with overwork behavior have significantly higher fertility intension. This conclusion still holds after excluding issues such as sample self-selection, omitted variables, and reverse causality, and after a series of robustness tests. Secondly, the impact of overwork on the fertility intentions of migrant workers shows a clear asymmetry, particularly among male migrant workers, low educated migrant workers, and migrant workers who lack job security. Thirdly, overwork can increase actual income, strengthen job stickiness, and increase the possibility of intergenerational upward mobility, thereby leading to an increase in the willingness of migrant workers to have children. Fourthly, heavy-work may still increase the fertility intension of migrant workers, but its income effect is smaller than the crowding out effect caused by health loss, resulting in a significant decrease in the impact of heavy-work on migrant workers’ fertility intension. Fifthly, when migrant workers complete the identity transition from "outsiders" to "locals", overwork has a stronger promoting effect on their fertility intentions. However, after achieving identity transcendence, overwork no longer has a significant impact on their fertility intentions. This article provides a new explanation for comprehensively understanding the overwork behavior of migrant workers from the perspective of intergenerational support.

Key words: migrant workers, overwork, intergenerational support, fertility intension

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