贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2026 ›› Issue (05): 121-133.

• 绿色发展论坛 • 上一篇    

低碳试点政策的农业碳减排效应及其作用机制——基于双重机器学习的经验证据

曾华盛, 程龙, 陶玲   

  1. 扬州大学 商学院, 江苏 扬州 225127
  • 收稿日期:2025-12-05 发布日期:2026-09-17
  • 作者简介:曾华盛（1993—），男，江苏徐州人，博士，扬州大学商学院副教授，研究方向为农业经济理论与政策；程龙（2001—），男，江苏徐州人，扬州大学商学院硕士研究生，研究方向为农业绿色发展；陶玲（1994—），女，江西南昌人，扬州大学商学院硕士研究生，研究方向为农业绿色发展。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目“区域贸易协定视角下中国农业全球价值链重构研究：机制、效应与路径”（72503212）；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国全球农业价值链重构中自由贸易协定的影响与优化研究”（22YJC790006）。

The Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction Effects and Mechanisms of Low-Carbon Pilot Policies: Evidence from Double Machine Learning

Zeng Huasheng, Cheng Long, Tao Ling   

  1. School of Business, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225127, China
  • Received:2025-12-05 Published:2026-09-17

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摘要： 在“双碳”目标与粮食安全双重约束下，农业低碳转型已成为亟待破解的现实难题。既有文献虽已对低碳试点政策与农业碳排放分别展开了较为充分的探讨，但鲜有研究将两者纳入统一框架加以考察，该政策的作用方向与传导路径在理论上存在不确定性。基于中国290个城市2007—2023年的面板数据，将低碳试点政策视为准自然实验，运用双重机器学习、机制检验、空间杜宾模型与空间溢出边界分析等方法，并结合政策文本构建城市-年份政策涉农程度指数，系统考察低碳试点政策对农业碳排放的影响。研究发现：低碳试点政策显著降低了试点城市农业碳排放，且通过多种稳健性检验后结论依然成立；该效应在第一批和第三批试点城市，以及财政自主权较高、农业劳动力相对稀缺和政策涉农程度较高的地区更为明显；低碳试点政策主要通过提升涉农技术供给、促进农业社会化服务发展和强化绿色金融支持来推动农业减排；从空间上看，低碳试点政策的农业碳减排作用同时存在正向和负向空间溢出效应，并且随着空间距离的扩大，低碳试点政策实施产生的挤出效应和虹吸效应逐渐大于政策所带来的扩散效应和学习效应。基于此，应提高低碳试点政策与农业减排任务的衔接程度，完善涉农绿色技术供给体系、社会化服务体系与绿色金融支持体系，并加强跨区域协同治理，促进农业低碳转型。

关键词: 农业碳排放, 低碳试点政策, 涉农技术供给, 农业社会化服务发展, 绿色金融支持

Abstract: Under the dual constraints of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and food security, the low-carbon transformation of agriculture has become an urgent practical challenge. Existing studies have separately examined low-carbon pilot policies and agricultural carbon emissions, yet few integrate the two, leaving the direction and transmission channels of such effects theoretically uncertain. This paper uses panel data for 290 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2023, treats the implementation of low-carbon pilot policies as a quasi-natural experiment, and employs double machine learning, mechanism analysis, a spatial Durbin model, and spatial spillover boundary analysis, together with a city-year index of the agricultural embeddedness of local pilot policies constructed from policy texts, to systematically examine the impact of these policies on agricultural carbon emissions. The results show that low-carbon pilot policies significantly reduce agricultural carbon emissions in pilot cities, and the findings remain robust across a series of tests. The effects are more pronounced in the first and third batches of pilot areas, cities with higher fiscal autonomy, cities with relatively scarce agricultural labor, and cities with stronger agricultural embeddedness in local policies. The policies reduce agricultural carbon emissions mainly by enhancing agriculture-related technology supply, promoting the development of agricultural socialized services, and strengthening green finance support. Spatially, the policies generate both positive and negative spillover effects on agricultural carbon emissions; as distance increases, the crowding-out and siphoning effects gradually outweigh the diffusion and learning effects. Accordingly, the linkage between low-carbon pilot policies and agricultural mitigation tasks should be strengthened, the systems for agriculture-related green technology supply, socialized services, and green finance support should be improved, and cross-regional collaborative governance should be enhanced to promote the low-carbon transformation of agriculture.

Key words: agricultural carbon emissions, low-carbon pilot policies, agriculture-related technology supply, development of agricultural socialized services, green finance support

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