关键词: “全面二孩”政策, 统筹基金, 精算模型, 敏感性分析

Abstract: With the implementation of "Total Two-Child" policy, the paper analysis the impact of this policy on the city staff basic pension's public funds expenditure ability, and to explore the effect of changed population policy on resolve pension expenditure crisis. The research shows that the "Total Two-Child" policy could not delay the deficit time of current yield, but may remit the expenditure pressure effective, resolve the crisis of pension expenditure. A suitable environment is necessary to support the effect of "Total Two-Child" Policy, by a further more analysis on sensitivity of parameter, the result shows that compliance rate and pension growth rate are more sensitivity to public fund expenditure ability than contribution rate, it also means that the possibility to reduce the enterprises' social contribution burden.

Key words: “Total Two-Child&rdquo, Policy, Public funds, Actuarial Model, Sensitivity Analysis