贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2022 ›› Issue (02): 69-78.

• 贫困与发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

生育政策、成本社会化与人口出生率

许坤1, 胡东婉1, 刘扬2   

  1. 1. 西南财经大学, 四川 成都 610074;
    2. 中央财经大学, 北京 102206
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-09 出版日期:2022-03-15 发布日期:2022-03-25
  • 作者简介:许坤(1982—),男,安徽全椒人,经济学博士,西南财经大学中国金融研究院副教授,研究方向为商业银行经营管理、金融计量;胡东婉(1983—),女,贵州赤水人,西南财经大学金融学院博士研究生,研究方向为微观经济学;刘扬(1998—),男,湖南长沙人,中央财经大学金融学院硕士研究生,研究方向为量化投资、金融计量。

The Family Planning Policy,Cost Socialization and Fertility Ratio

XU Kun1, HU Dong-wan1, LIU Yang2   

  1. 1. Southwest University of Finance and economics, Chengdu, Sichuan 610074, China;
    2. Central University of Finance and economics, Beijing 102206, China
  • Received:2021-12-09 Online:2022-03-15 Published:2022-03-25

PDF

1665

摘要： 我国计划生育政策调整引起了社会的高度关注,科学评价政策实施的效果尤为重要。以2001年《人口与计划生育法》提倡一对夫妻符合法律、法规规定条件的,可生育两个子女作为准自然实验,基于1982~2013年省级年度面板数据,采用面板数据和门槛模型评估生育政策实施的有效性及机制问题。实证研究结果表明:生育政策与人口出生率显著为正;生育政策和生育成本社会化的交互项与人口出生率显著为正。说明生育政策有效,可以提高人口出生率,且生育成本社会化转移越多,人口出生率越高。从地区分组来看,东、中部地区的政策有效性更强。从门槛效应看,相对于低房价地区,高房价地区的政策效果更明显;相对于低文化水平群体,高文化水平群体的政策效果更明显。

关键词: "二孩"政策, 成本社会化, 政策评价

Abstract: The adjustment of China’s family planning policy has aroused great concern in society, and it is particularly important to scientifically evaluate the effect of policy implementation. This paper uses the 2001 Family Planning Law to advocate a couple having two children as a quasi-natural experiment, based on the provincial annual panel data from 1982 to 2013, this paper uses the panel and panel threshold model to explore the effectiveness and mechanism of the implementation of the family planning policy. The empirical results show that: First, the family planning policy is significantly positively related to the birth rate of the population at the level of 10%; The crossover term between the family planning policy and the socialization of fertility costs is significantly positively related to the Fertility Ratio at the 10% level. This indicates that the family planning policy is effective and can improve the Fertility Ratio. Besides, the more the socialization of cost transfers, the higher the Fertility Ratio is. From the perspective of regional grouping, the policy effectiveness of the eastern and central regions is stronger. Second, from the perspective of parameter estimates, compared with low-house housing areas, the more obvious the policy effect is in high-housing areas; compared with low-literate groups, the more obvious the policy effect of high-literacy groups.

Key words: the family planning policy, socialization of fertility costs, policy evaluation

中图分类号: