贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2022 ›› Issue (03): 37-47.

• 高质量发展专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口老龄化、农业社会化服务与农业高质量发展

孙中义, 王力, 李兴锋   

  1. 石河子大学 经济与管理学院, 新疆 石河子 832000
  • 收稿日期:2021-09-01 出版日期:2022-05-15 发布日期:2022-05-21
  • 作者简介:孙中义(1983-),男,河南内乡人,石河子大学经济与管理学院博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为农业经济;王力(1976-),男,山东莒南人,石河子大学教授,博士生导师,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策、棉花经济;李兴锋(1989-),男,河南方城人,石河子大学经济与管理学院博士研究生,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金项目"新疆发展纺织服装产业带动就业规划的政策评估与优化研究"(20BGL207);新疆生产建设兵团社科基金重点项目"构建新型农业社会化服务体系推动兵团现代农业发展——基于'MAP'模式的应用推广研究"(KZ0235)。

Population Aging, Socialized Agricultural Services and Agricultural High Quality Development

SUN Zhong-yi, WANG Li, LI Xing-feng   

  1. School of economics and management, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China
  • Received:2021-09-01 Online:2022-05-15 Published:2022-05-21

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摘要： 农村人口老龄化推动了农业服务化和土地流转的进程，并对农业高质量发展带来了明显的冲击。为揭示各因素的作用机理，基于2000~2019年31个省际面板数据，利用动态面板模型和中介效应模型考察人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响。结果表明:我国农业高质量发展呈现出由沿海向内地递减的差异性分布和空间集聚特征；农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展具有显著的负效应，且中部地区受影响的程度最大，西部次之，东部最低；农业社会化服务和土地规模经营有利于农业的高质量发展；人口老龄主要通过“倒逼机制”使农业服务化和土地转出两个重要传导渠道发挥了正向部分中介效应，缓解了人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的抑制效应。因此，引导农村人口有序回流、推进土地适度规模化经营、提高农业社会化服务水平是推动农业高质量发展的基本立足点。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 农业高质量发展, 农业服务化

Abstract: The aging of the rural population has promoted the process of agricultural service and land transfer, and has brought a significant impact on the high-quality development of agriculture. In order to reveal the mechanism of each factor, this article is based on 31 inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019 The dynamic panel model and the intermediary effect model examine the impact of rural population aging on the high-quality development of agriculture. The results show that:the high-quality development of agriculture in my country presents the characteristics of differential distribution and spatial agglomeration decreasing from the coast to the inland; the aging of the rural population has a significant negative effect on the high-quality development of agriculture, and the central region is the most affected, and the western region is less affected. Among them, the east is the lowest; the aging of the population mainly uses the "reverse mechanism" to make the two important transmission channels of agricultural servicing and land transfer play a positive partial intermediary effect, alleviating the inhibitory effect of population aging on the high-quality development of agriculture. Therefore, guiding the rural population to return in an orderly manner, advancing the appropriate large-scale operation of land, and improving the level of agricultural socialization services are the basic footholds for promoting the high-quality development of agriculture.

Key words: Aging population, high-quality agricultural development, socialized agricultural services

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