气候风险对企业真实盈余管理程度的影响及作用机制研究——来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候风险已成为影响企业可持续发展的重大风险之一,提升企业抗风险能力是保障其稳健运行、促进经济韧性增长的重要策略。现有研究多聚焦于气候风险对宏观经济与供应链的影响,少有对企业财务活动等微观层面作用机制的探究。以2007—2022年A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验了气候风险对企业真实盈余管理程度的影响及作用机制,研究发现:(1)气候风险显著降低了企业真实盈余管理程度,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。(2)机制分析表明,气候风险会通过加重企业融资约束抑制企业真实盈余管理程度;媒体关注能够强化气候风险对企业真实盈余管理程度的抑制作用。(3)异质性分析发现,相较于严重风险和慢性风险,转型风险对真实盈余管理程度的抑制作用更为明显;对市场化程度更高、处于成长期的企业而言,气候风险对真实盈余管理程度的抑制作用更为明显。研究结论揭示了气候风险与企业真实盈余管理的内在联系,为如何抑制企业真实盈余管理提供了新的经验证据,并强调了加强外部监督对改善公司治理的重要性。

关键词: 气候风险, 真实盈余管理程度, 融资约束, 调节效应

Abstract: Climate risk has become one of the major risks affecting the sustainable development of enterprises, and enhancing the risk-resistant capacity of enterprises is an important strategy to ensure their sound operation and promote resilient economic growth. Existing studies have mostly focused on the impact of climate risk on macroeconomics and supply chain, and few have explored the micro-level mechanism of corporate financial activities. Taking A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2022 as the research sample, we empirically examined the impact of climate risk on the degree of corporate real earnings management and the mechanism of its role. The study finds that (1) climate risk significantly reduces the degree of corporate real earnings management, and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. (2) Mechanism analysis shows that climate risk can inhibit the degree of corporate real earnings management by increasing corporate financing constraints; media attention can strengthen the inhibitory effect of climate risk on the degree of corporate real earnings management. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that transition risk has a more pronounced inhibitory effect on the degree of corporate real earnings management compared to severe risk and chronic risk; climate risk has a more pronounced inhibitory effect on the degree of corporate real earnings management that are more marketized and in the growth period. The findings reveal the intrinsic link between climate risk and corporate real earnings management, provide new empirical evidence on how to curb corporate real earnings management, and emphasize the importance of strengthening external monitoring to improve corporate governance.

Key words: climate risk, the degree of corporate real earnings management, financing constraints, moderating effect

中图分类号:

F275

苏伟洲, 邓海洋, 郭四代. 气候风险对企业真实盈余管理程度的影响及作用机制研究——来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据[J]. 贵州财经大学学报, 2025(04): 71-81.

SU Weizhou, DENG Haiyang, GUO Sidai. The Impact of Climate Risk on The Degree of Corporate Real Earnings Management and Its Mechanism: Empirical Evidence from Chinese A-share Listed Companies[J]. Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, 2025(04): 71-81.

参考文献

[1] 刘波, 王修华, 李明贤. 气候变化冲击下的涉农信用风险:基于2010-2019年256家农村金融机构的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2021(12):96~115.
[2] 刘波, 李芸琪, 蒋银娟. 气候变化冲击下的制造业企业全要素生产率:机制分析与实证检验[J]. 湖南大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 37(1):78~87.
[3] 潘敏, 刘红艳, 程子帅. 极端气候对商业银行风险承担的影响:来自中国地方性商业银行的经验证据[J]. 金融研究, 2022(10):39~57.
[4] 杨子晖, 李东承, 陈雨恬. 金融市场的"绿天鹅"风险研究:基于物理风险与转型风险的双重视角[J]. 管理世界, 2024, 40(2):47~67.
[5] 李泽广, 黄远标. 气候风险冲击与信贷融资收缩的"加速器"效应[J]. 财经理论与实践, 2024, 45(3):2~10.
[6] 卞雨晨, 顾海峰. 气候风险对跨境资本流动的时变冲击:基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究[J]. 国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报), 2024(1):98~116.
[7] Altay N, Ramirez A. Impact of Disasters on Firms in Different Sectors: Implications for Supply Chains[J]. Journal of Supply Chain Management, 2010, 46(4):59~80.
[8] Jia Z, Lin B, Change S. Rethinking the Choice of Carbon Tax and Carbon Trading in China[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, 159120187.
[9] Healy P M. The Effect of Bonus Schemes on Accounting Decisions[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1985, 7(1-3):85~107.
[10] Bartov E, Givoly D, Hayn C, et al. The Rewards to Meeting or Beating Earnings Expectations[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2002, 33(2):173~204.
[11] Watts R L, Zimmerman J L. Towards a Positive Theory of the Determination of Accounting Standards[J]. Accounting Review, 1978, 112~134.
[12] Sellami M. Incentives and Constraints of Real Earnings Management: The Literature Review[J]. International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2015, 4(4):206~213.
[13] Lo K. Earnings Management and Earnings Quality[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2008, 45(2-3):350~357.
[14] Lenard M J, Petruska K A, Alam P, et al. Internal Control Weaknesses and Evidence of Real Activities Manipulation[J]. Advances in Accounting, 2016, 33:47~58.
[15] 高明华, 杜雯翠. 外部监管、内部控制与企业经营风险:来自中国上市公司的经验证据 [J]. 南方经济, 2013(12):63~72.
[16] 于忠泊, 叶琼燕, 田高良. 外部监督与盈余管理:针对媒体关注、机构投资者与分析师的考察 [J]. 山西财经大学学报, 2011, 33(9):90~99.
[17] Roychowdhury S. Earnings Management Through Real Activities Manipulation[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2006, 42(3):335~370.
[18] 高玥, 杨毅. 供应链金融、盈余管理与企业融资效率 [J]. 运筹与管理, 2023, 32(8):152~158.
[19] 刘志洋, 牛亚楠, 徐索菲. 气候风险对中国银行业系统性风险的影响 [J]. 南方金融, 2024(3):20~34.
[20] 杨棉之, 张涛. 收益平滑与股价崩盘风险[J]. 中央财经大学学报, 2018(11):71~81.
[21] 王志强, 张玮婷, 顾劲尔. 资本结构、管理层防御与上市公司高管薪酬水平 [J]. 会计研究, 2011(2):72~78;97.
[22] Carmon Z, Wertenbroch K, Zeelenberg M. Option Attachment: When Deliberating Makes Choosing Feel Like Losing[J]. Journal of Consumer Research, 2003, 30(1):15~29.
[23] 卢太平, 张东旭. 融资需求、融资约束与盈余管理[J]. 会计研究, 2014(1):35~41;94.
[24] 潘攀, 张立光, 刘智超, 等. 一致行动人的治理效能研究:基于真实盈余管理视角 [J]. 中国软科学, 2024(7):191~199.
[25] 徐明亮, 张蕊. 反收购条款设立会影响企业真实盈余管理行为吗 [J]. 会计研究, 2022(2):86~98.
[26] 李国民, 李玉恒. 双碳目标背景下高碳排放企业低碳转型会提升真实盈余管理吗 [J]. 金融经济学研究, 2025, 40(1):144~160.
[27] 管考磊, 张蕊. 企业声誉与盈余管理:有效契约观还是寻租观 [J]. 会计研究, 2019(1):59~64.
[28] 杜剑, 徐筱彧, 杨杨. 气候风险影响权益资本成本吗:来自中国上市公司年报文本分析的经验证据 [J]. 金融评论, 2023, 15(3):19~46;125.
[29] 魏志华, 曾爱民, 李博. 金融生态环境与企业融资约束:基于中国上市公司的实证研究 [J]. 会计研究, 2014(5):73~80;95.
[30] 范经华, 张雅曼, 刘启亮. 内部控制、审计师行业专长、应计与真实盈余管理[J]. 会计研究, 2013(4):81~88;96.
[31] 王倩, 回禹杭. 气候风险对企业价值的影响[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2024, 34(9):22-31.
[32] 宋科, 徐蕾, 李振, 等. ESG投资能够促进银行创造流动性吗:兼论经济政策不确定性的调节效应 [J]. 金融研究, 2022(2):61~79.
[33] 余明桂, 李文贵, 潘红波. 管理者过度自信与企业风险承担 [J]. 金融研究, 2013(1):149~163.
[34] 温忠麟, 侯杰泰, 张雷. 调节效应与中介效应的比较和应用 [J]. 心理学报, 2005(2):268~274.
[35] 梁上坤, 张宇, 王彦超. 内部薪酬差距与公司价值:基于生命周期理论的新探索 [J]. 金融研究, 2019(4):188~206.
[36] 樊纲, 王小鲁, 马光荣. 中国市场化进程对经济增长的贡献[J]. 经济研究, 2011, 46(9):4~16.