经济政策稳定性、系统性金融风险与经济高质量发展

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2025 ›› Issue (05): 10-20.

经济政策稳定性、系统性金融风险与经济高质量发展

何稚忻^1,2, 何剑¹, 刘钰¹

1. 新疆财经大学, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830012;
2. 金陵科技学院, 江苏南京 211169

收稿日期:2023-12-29 出版日期:2025-11-18 发布日期:2025-11-18
作者简介:何稚忻(1990—),女,安徽宣城人,新疆财经大学金融学院博士生,金陵科技学院国有资产管理处教职工,研究方向为金融理论与政策;何剑(1973—)(通信作者),男,四川西充人,博士,新疆财经大学金融学院教授,博士生导师,研究方向为金融理论与政策;刘钰(1991—),女,黑龙江双鸭山人,新疆财经大学金融学院博士生。
基金资助:
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目"管理者过度自信和企业非效率投资研究"(2022SJYB0617);国家社科基金重大项目"基于税收数据的高质量发展统计监测与评估研究"(24&ZD064);国家自然科学基金项目"双支柱框架下稳定金融的政策协同效应研究"(7216030084);江苏高校基础科学(自然科学)面上项目"江苏省金融科技的跨部门风险演化与预警系统构建"(24KJD630003)。

Economic policy stability, Systemic financial risk, and High-quality economic development

HE Zhixin^1,2, HE Jian¹, LIU Yu¹

1. Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830012, China;
2. Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 211169, China

Received:2023-12-29 Online:2025-11-18 Published:2025-11-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 经济政策稳定性对防范化解系统性金融风险和推进经济高质量发展至关重要,因此,三者间的影响特征和强度值得深入研究。通过TVP-VAR模型,研究了1997年第一季度至2022年第四季度中国经济政策稳定性、系统性金融风险与经济高质量发展之间的动态关系。研究发现:从总效应看,经济政策稳定性在短期和长期均促进经济高质量发展,且具有时变特征,短期促进作用随时间推移增强,而长期促进作用随时间推移收敛。在风险传导渠道方面,经济政策稳定性在短期内促进了系统性金融风险,中长期抑制了系统性金融风险。系统性金融风险增加则可能会先推动后抑制经济高质量发展。研究弥补了依赖静态模型进行单一路径分析的不足,为深刻洞察和处理三者关系提供了经验证据和施策参考。

关键词: 经济政策稳定性, 系统性金融风险, 经济高质量发展, TVP-VAR

Abstract: The economic policy stability is crucial for preventing and mitigating systemic financial risk and promoting high-quality economic development; thus, the characteristics and strength of their interactions deserve in-depth research. By employing a TVP-VAR model, this paper investigates the dynamic relationships among economic policy stability, systemic financial risk, and high-quality economic development in China during the period from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The findings indicate that, from the perspective of the overall effect, economic policy stability positively influences high-quality economic development in both the short and long term, exhibiting time-varying characteristics. Specifically, the short-term positive effect strengthens over time, while the long-term positive effect gradually converges. Regarding the risk transmission channel, economic policy stability tends to initially exacerbate systemic financial risk in the short term but mitigates it over the medium to long term. Conversely, an increase in systemic financial risk may initially stimulate but subsequently restrain high-quality economic development.This study addresses the shortcomings of previous analyses that rely on static models with a single-path perspective, providing empirical evidence and policy implications for deeply understanding and managing the interrelationship among these three factors.

Key words: economic policy stability, systemic financial risk, high-quality economic development, TVP-VAR

中图分类号:

F832.5

何稚忻, 何剑, 刘钰. 经济政策稳定性、系统性金融风险与经济高质量发展[J]. 贵州财经大学学报, 2025(05): 10-20.

HE Zhixin, HE Jian, LIU Yu. Economic policy stability, Systemic financial risk, and High-quality economic development[J]. Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, 2025(05): 10-20.

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