关键词: 外部冲击, 农户家庭, 不确定性, 经营组织, 技术变迁, 决策模型, 制度调整

Abstract: the family is now and in the future for a long period of time our country agriculture main organization form. The family as a unit, easily affected by the external conditions such as natural resources, technical conditions, labor supply, political situation, social and economic order and even geographical weather, will face various uncertainties. The external factors change on the agricultural economic impact is mixed. It can provide empirical evidence for the government to feed back the management information of farmers, evaluate the family microeconomic behavior and build an effective system by incorporating the economic life prototype, incorporating the risk factors and constructing the household decision-making model. The family management of farmers in the near future is mainly faced with a series of institutional obstacles. Therefore, we should accelerate the construction of the agriculture related system, improve the system system, strengthen the system incentive and guarantee functions, so as to reduce the risk and cost of farmers and improve the performance of agricultural management.

Key words: external shocks, household, uncertainty, organization, technology transformation, decision model, system adjustment