贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2022 ›› Issue (04): 71-80.

• 贫困与发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长寿风险、主观生存概率与养老金融资产配置

朱文佩1,2, 林义3   

  1. 1. 西南财经大学 公共管理学院, 四川 成都 611130;
    2. 西南财经大学 科研处, 四川 成都 611130;
    3. 西南财经大学 中国金融研究院, 四川 成都 611130
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-09 出版日期:2022-07-15 发布日期:2022-07-22
  • 作者简介:朱文佩(1992—),女,四川成都人,西南财经大学公共管理学院博士研究生,研究方向为社会保险;林义(1960—),男,重庆人,西南财经大学中国金融研究院教授、博士生导师,经济学博士,研究方向为老龄金融和养老保障。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金十九大专项"全面建成多层次社会保障体系的实施难点与路径优化研究"(18VSJ095)。

Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Probability and Aging Financial Asset Allocation

ZHU Wen-pei1,2, LIN Yi3   

  1. 1. Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, School of Public Administration, Chengdu, Sichuan 611130, China;
    2.Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Research Department, Chengdu, Sichuan 611130, China;
    3. Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China Financial Research Institute, Chengdu, Sichuan 611130, China
  • Received:2021-12-09 Online:2022-07-15 Published:2022-07-22

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摘要： 寿命不确定性是影响个人生命周期储蓄的重要因素,预期寿命的延长势必对养老规划和养老金融资产配置带来一系列影响。本文利用《中国人口与就业统计年鉴》数据,在历史死亡率的基础上预测未来死亡率变化趋势,计算出各年龄、性别人群活到某特定年龄的预期生存概率,并将其与CHARLS 2018中的主观生存概率数据相匹配。实证研究表明,预期生存概率与主观生存概率间呈现出显著正相关关系,说明人们意识到死亡率下降趋势并能调整主观生存概率,长寿风险作为环境变量对个人的主观生存概率产生正向影响。主观生存概率上升不会显著影响储蓄水平,但会显著提升个人持有商业养老保险、风险性金融资产的可能性,并相应增加年缴保费和持有金额。

关键词: 长寿风险, 主观生存概率, 预期生存概率, 养老金融资产

Abstract: This article uses data from the "China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook" to predict future mortality trends based on historical mortality statistics, calculates the expected survival probability of people of all ages and genders living to a certain age, and compares them with the subjective survival probabilities in the CHARLS 2018. Empirical research shows that there is a significant positive correlation between the expected survival probability and the subjective survival probability, indicating that people can aware of the future decline in mortality and can adjust the subjective survival probability. The longevity risk, as an environmental variable, has a positive impact on the individual’s subjective survival probability. The rise in subjective survival probability will not significantly affect the level of savings, but will significantly increase the possibility of personal holdings of commercial endowment insurance and risky financial assets, together with a corresponding increase in annual premiums and holdings amount. The relationship between subjective survival probability and aging financial asset allocation has significant heterogeneity among different age and household register groups.

Key words: longevity risk, subjective survival probability, expected survival probability, aging financial assets

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