贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2026 ›› Issue (01): 133-142.

• 绿色发展论坛 • 上一篇    

低碳转型冲击与中国城市经济韧性——基于低碳城市试点的准自然实验

周杰琦1, 杨胤豪2, 崔传涛2   

  1. 1. 广东财经大学 统计与数据科学学院, 广东 广州 510320;
    2. 北京师范大学 湾区国际商学院, 广东 珠海 519023
  • 收稿日期:2024-01-11 发布日期:2026-01-22
  • 作者简介:周杰琦(1983—),男,广东韶关人,博士,广东财经大学经济学院教授,研究方向为绿色创新与环境治理;杨胤豪(2001—),男,江西赣州人,北京师范大学湾区国际商学院本科生,研究方向为环境政策效果评估与优化;崔传涛(1984—),男,辽宁丹东人,博士,北京师范大学湾区国际商学院副教授,研究方向为公司治理与绿色转型。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“‘双碳’目标下环境规制影响城市经济韧性的机制、效应与政策优化研究”(23YJA790108)。

Low-Carbon Transition Shocks and Urban Economic Resilience in China: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment of Low-Carbon City Pilots

ZHOU Jieqi1, YANG Yinhao2, CUI Chuantao2   

  1. 1. Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, School of Statistics and Data Science, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510320, China;
    2. Beijing Normal University, Bay Area International Business School, Zhuhai, Guangdong 519023, China
  • Received:2024-01-11 Published:2026-01-22

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摘要： 低碳城市试点作为兼顾减碳承诺和可持续发展的环境规制工具,在实现节能减排的同时是否可能造成经济社会系统性变革,进而冲击城市韧性水平?既有研究对能否在保证经济韧性前提下推动碳减排尚还未有确切答案。文章以低碳城市试点为准自然实验,剖析低碳转型影响城市经济韧性的机制与异质性,采用渐进双重差分法进行理论命题的实证检验。研究发现:(1)低碳城市试点总体上增强城市经济韧性,但该效应呈先抑制后促进的动态特征,这一作用主要源于抵抗力和适应力子系统先抑制后促进的时变特征,而恢复力子系统呈现逐渐增强态势;(2)机制检验显示,试点政策通过推动产业清洁转型、低碳交通发展、人力资本流入和居民绿色消费增强城市经济韧性;(3)异质性分析发现,试点政策对经济韧性的提升作用在经济集聚程度更高、营商环境更优、要素市场扭曲程度更低的城市更为明显;(4)基于微观就业视角的经济韧性评估发现,试点政策在造成污染企业“棕色失业”的同时也增加清洁企业“绿色就业”,最终在城市层面产生就业创造的溢出效应,低碳转型在经济韧性维度的收益仍大于成本。文章从环境政策视角深化对经济韧性动因的理解,为在“双碳”目标刚性约束下防范化解重大风险和推动高质量发展提供有益启示。

关键词: 低碳城市试点, 城市经济韧性, 渐进双重差分模型

Abstract: As an environmental regulatory instrument balancing carbon reduction commitments and sustainable development, does the low-carbon city pilot policy achieve energy conservation and emission reduction while triggering systemic socio-economic transformation that impacts urban resilience? Existing studies have yet to conclusively determine whether carbon mitigation can be advanced without compromising economic resilience. Leveraging the low-carbon city pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study investigates the mechanisms and heterogeneity of how low-carbon transitions affect urban economic resilience, employing a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach for empirical validation. The findings reveal that: (1) While the pilot policy enhances urban economic resilience overall, this effect exhibits a dynamic U-shaped pattern—initial suppression followed by subsequent promotion. This dynamic arises as the effects on resistance and adaptability subsystems shift over time, initially inhibitory then turning promotive, whereas the recovery subsystem demonstrates a steadily strengthening trend. (2) Mechanism analyses indicate that the policy enhances resilience by promoting cleaner industrial transformation, advancing low-carbon transportation, attracting human capital inflows, and fostering green consumption among residents. (3) Heterogeneity tests show stronger resilience-enhancing effects in cities with higher economic agglomeration, superior business environments, and less distorted factor markets. (4) A micro-level employment assessment reveals that the policy generates "brown unemployment" in polluting sectors but simultaneously stimulates "green employment" in clean industries, ultimately yielding net job creation spillovers at the urban level. The economic resilience benefits of low-carbon transitions outweigh their costs. This study deepens the understanding of resilience drivers from an environmental policy perspective, offering critical insights for mitigating systemic risks and advancing high-quality development under China’s rigid "Dual Carbon" constraints.

Key words: low-carbon city pilots, urban economic resilience, gradual difference-in-differences model

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