Abstract: As an environmental regulatory instrument balancing carbon reduction commitments and sustainable development, does the low-carbon city pilot policy achieve energy conservation and emission reduction while triggering systemic socio-economic transformation that impacts urban resilience? Existing studies have yet to conclusively determine whether carbon mitigation can be advanced without compromising economic resilience. Leveraging the low-carbon city pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study investigates the mechanisms and heterogeneity of how low-carbon transitions affect urban economic resilience, employing a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach for empirical validation. The findings reveal that: (1) While the pilot policy enhances urban economic resilience overall, this effect exhibits a dynamic U-shaped pattern—initial suppression followed by subsequent promotion. This dynamic arises as the effects on resistance and adaptability subsystems shift over time, initially inhibitory then turning promotive, whereas the recovery subsystem demonstrates a steadily strengthening trend. (2) Mechanism analyses indicate that the policy enhances resilience by promoting cleaner industrial transformation, advancing low-carbon transportation, attracting human capital inflows, and fostering green consumption among residents. (3) Heterogeneity tests show stronger resilience-enhancing effects in cities with higher economic agglomeration, superior business environments, and less distorted factor markets. (4) A micro-level employment assessment reveals that the policy generates "brown unemployment" in polluting sectors but simultaneously stimulates "green employment" in clean industries, ultimately yielding net job creation spillovers at the urban level. The economic resilience benefits of low-carbon transitions outweigh their costs. This study deepens the understanding of resilience drivers from an environmental policy perspective, offering critical insights for mitigating systemic risks and advancing high-quality development under China’s rigid "Dual Carbon" constraints.

Key words: low-carbon city pilots, urban economic resilience, gradual difference-in-differences model