›› 2016 ›› Issue (01): 19-27.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

工业税收负担及其影响因素分析

张丽丽   

  1. 中国社会科学院研究生院, 北京 102488
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-01 出版日期:2016-01-15 发布日期:2016-01-11
  • 作者简介:张丽丽(1985—),女,山东临沂人,中国社会科学院研究生院博士研究生,研究方向为公司理财、企业税负。

Industry Tax burden and the analysis of its influencing factors

ZHANG Li-li   

  1. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China
  • Received:2015-10-01 Online:2016-01-15 Published:2016-01-11

摘要: 在描绘与工业相关的税收政策变化轨迹的基础上,对工业从1991年的税收绝对额、税收结构和税收负担进行了测算,然后针对影响工业税收绝对额变化的因素,运用时间序列向量自回归模型(VAR模型)进行实证分析。研究结果显示,工业制成品出口额、广义货币发行量和国内生产总值都影响到工业税收总额的变动,特别是在滞后三年影响达到最大,随后逐渐减弱。工业税收负担的变化情况,从1994年分税制改革之后税收负担有明显的下降趋势,直到2001年才开始出现上升趋势。这反映出税收政策对于税收负担的调节是最直接和响应速度最快的。在工业转型升级过程中,税收政策可以针对不同的行业和经济形式的变化形成不同的税收体系,来指导产业未来的发展方向。

关键词: 工业, 税收, 税收负担

Abstract: On the basis of depicting the track about the tax policy changes of industry, this article calculated the industrial taxation in absolute terms and the tax burdens from 1991. Factors which impact the changes in taxation of industry in absolute terms are analyzed by using time series vector auto-regression model (VAR model) empirical analysis, the model indicates that broad money supply (M2), manufactured goods exports and gross domestic product have great impacts,which reached the maximum influences in the lag of three years, then gradually weaken. The changes in the tax burden of industry significantly downward trend after the tax reform in 1994, and from 2001 it began an upward trend. This reflects the tax policy for the regulation of the tax burden is the most direct and fastest response. In the process of industrial transformation and upgrading, tax policy can form different tax systems for different sectors of the economy in the process of changing and guide the future direction of industry.

Key words: industry, taxation, tax burden

中图分类号: