›› 2017 ›› Issue (02): 21-30.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

老龄化对中日社会产生的影响相同吗——基于中日两国人口数据的对比研究

石先进   

  1. 中国社会科学院 研究生院经济系, 北京 102488
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-03 出版日期:2017-03-15 发布日期:2017-03-13
  • 作者简介:石先进(1987-),男,贵州遵义人,中国社科院研究生院经济系博士生,研究方向为宏观经济政策与金融资产定价。
  • 基金资助:

    本文受国家自然科学基金项目“中国-中亚货币合作与人民币区域化和国际化研究”(71263050)资助。

Does Aging Have the Same Effects on China and Japan-a comparative study based on the population data

SHI Xian-jin   

  1. Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China
  • Received:2016-09-03 Online:2017-03-15 Published:2017-03-13

摘要: 结合中日两国的人口特征数据,实证研究了中日两国老龄化过程的差异、老龄化对两国社会经济造成的影响以及政府应对老龄化的政策。研究发现日本老龄化比中国提前约20年到达,在未来持续老龄化的作用下两国人口特征会趋同;日本养老金体系、储蓄率以及产业结构受老龄化的冲击比中国更严重,中国老龄化的负面问题目前还没完全暴露。日本政府通过积极的生育政策、移民政策、延迟退休政策、银色资源开发政策以及产业调整政策来解决老龄化问题,与日本相比,中国的经济社会政策显得相对迟缓与保守,目前政策实施的力度和效果都不明显,因此,中国政府应该采取更加积极的人口政策、生育配套政策、产业政策以及高龄劳动力市场政策来应对潜在的老龄化威胁。

关键词: 老龄化, 人口结构, 社会问题, 应对措施

Abstract: Based on the demographic data of China and Japan, this paper makes an empirical study on the differences of the aging process between China and Japan, the impact of aging on the social economy of both countries and the government's response to the aging. We find that Japan's aging is about 20 years ahead of China, but the characteristics of population aging of the two countries will converge in the future. Japan's pension system, savings rate and the industrial structure are more seriously impacted by aging than those of China. China's aging problem is not yet fully exposed. In order to solve the aging problem, Japanese government adopts positive fertility policy, flexible immigration policy, delayed retirement policy, silver resource development policy and industrial adjustment policy. Compared with Japan, China social policy is relatively tardy and conservative; the intensity and effectiveness of policy implementation is not obvious at present, so Chinese government should take more active population policy, family policy, industrial policy and labor market policy to defeat potential aging threat.

Key words: aging, population structure, social problems, countermeasures

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