关键词: 电子商务, 消费结构升级, 农村家庭, 双重差分法

Abstract: The lagging consumption structure of rural households restricts the release of consumption potential. Existing research lacks in-depth exploration of the micro-mechanisms through which e-commerce promotes consumption structure upgrading. Based on data from the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) from 2012 to 2020, this study employs the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method and innovatively evaluates the impact of e-commerce development on the upgrading of rural household consumption structure from the perspectives of consumption capacity and consumption willingness. This approach fills the gap in existing literature regarding the neglect of heterogeneity and mechanism analysis. The study finds that e-commerce development significantly promotes the upgrading of rural household consumption structure, as evidenced by an increase in the share of developmental and enjoyment-oriented consumption expenditures and a decrease in the share of food expenditures. The underlying mechanisms lie in the enhancement of consumption capacity and the strengthening of consumption willingness. Further analysis reveals that the impact of e-commerce development varies among rural households with different characteristics; households with a higher child-rearing ratio, higher educational attainment of the household head, and those located in poverty-stricken counties show more significant responses to policy interventions. Consumption structure upgrading is reflected not only in overall consumption growth but especially in increased spending on household appliances and daily necessities. This study provides empirical evidence on how e-commerce facilitates the upgrading of rural household consumption structures and offers important policy implications for stimulating consumption potential in rural areas.

Key words: digital economy, consumption structure, rural households, double difference method