贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2026 ›› Issue (03): 63-75.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    

“主题-工具-质量”框架下农村养老服务政策的量化评价

王武林1, 司俊霄1,2   

  1. 1. 贵州财经大学 公共管理学院, 贵州 贵阳 550025;
    2. 川北医学院 疾病监测与数智健康治理重点实验室, 四川 南充 637000
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-18 发布日期:2026-05-22
  • 作者简介:王武林(1981—),男,贵州福泉人,博士生导师,贵州财经大学公共管理学院教授、贵州绿色发展战略高端智库研究员,研究方向为老年社会保障;司俊霄(1992—),男,四川南充人,讲师,贵州财经大学公共管理学院博士研究生,研究方向为人口健康与养老服务。
  • 基金资助:
    中国老年学和老年医学学会项目"四川省农村养老服务改革发展研究"(CAGG2025095);四川省哲学社会科学高水平研究团队学术研究专项"基层社区流动老年人健康福利提升研究"(SC24T009);本文为贵州绿色发展战略高端智库成果。

A Quantitative Evaluation of Rural Elderly Care Service Policies under the Theme-Tool-Quality Framework

WANG Wulin1, SI Junxiao1,2   

  1. 1. School of Public Administration, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, Guizhou 550025, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Digital-Intelligent Disease Surveillance and Health Governance, North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, Sichuan 637000, China
  • Received:2025-08-18 Published:2026-05-22

PDF

26

摘要： 一项好的农村养老服务政策不仅能够增进民生福祉,还能促进社会公平正义。然而,既有研究对于"好"政策的认定标准较为模糊,缺乏量化评价。为此,通过构建"主题-工具-质量"三维分析框架,采用文本挖掘法、内容分析法对2013—2025年农村养老服务政策内容进行深度分析,运用PMC指数模型对11个专项政策进行量化评价。研究发现:政策主题特点鲜明,涉及农村养老服务网络、保障机制与资源支持、弱势长者兜底保障、互助养老模式创新、医养结合与健康服务五个类别;各类政策工具使用频率不均衡,强制型工具占比47.19%,混合型工具占比27.24%,自愿型工具占比25.57%,呈现"强供给、弱激励、缺市场"的政策特征;代表性农村养老服务政策PMC均值为6.59,政策质量整体可接受,但府际差异大。未来提升农村养老服务政策质量可进一步拓展政策主题内容,优化政策工具组合,推动优质政策扩散。

关键词: 农村养老服务, 政策工具, PMC指数, 公共政策

Abstract: A sound rural elderly care policy not only enhances public welfare but also promotes social equity and justice. However, existing research has been vague in defining the criteria for a 'good’ policy, lacking quantitative evaluation. To address this, a three-dimensional analytical framework comprising 'theme-tool-quality’ was constructed. Text mining and content analysis methods were employed to conduct an in-depth analysis of rural elderly care service policies from 2013 to 2025. The PMC index model was then applied to quantitatively evaluate 11 specialised policies. Findings reveal: policy themes exhibit distinct characteristics, encompassing five categories: rural elderly care service networks, safeguard mechanisms and resource support, safety net provisions for vulnerable seniors, innovations in mutual-aid care models, and integrated medical-care with health services; The frequency of policy tool usage is unevenly distributed: mandatory tools account for 47.19%, hybrid tools for 27.24%, and voluntary tools for 25.57%, revealing a policy profile characterised by 'strong supply, weak incentives, and market deficiencies’; The average PMC score for representative rural elderly care policies is 6.59, indicating generally acceptable policy quality, though with significant inter-governmental disparities. Future improvements to rural elderly care policy quality could involve expanding thematic content, optimising policy tool combinations, and promoting the diffusion of high-quality policies.

Key words: rural elderly care services, policy Instruments, PMC index, public policy

中图分类号: