贵州财经大学学报

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2025 ›› Issue (03): 40-48.

• 新质生产力 • 上一篇    

人口规模、年龄结构与发展新质生产力

宋宝琳, 宋凤轩   

  1. 河北大学 管理学院/共同富裕研究中心/新质生产力发展研究中心, 河北 保定 071000
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-13 发布日期:2025-05-21
  • 作者简介:宋宝琳(1989—),男,河北海兴人,博士,河北大学讲师,研究方向为数字经济、新质生产力与应用统计;宋凤轩(1971—)(通信作者),河北海兴人,博士,河北大学博士生导师,研究方向为财税政策与共同富裕。
  • 基金资助:
    河北省人力资源社会保障科研合作课题"河北省'十五五’时期创新型人才培养问题研究"(JRGH-2024-1009);国家社会科学基金重点项目"中国老年人口健康促进的内在机理与实现路径研究"(23ARK004)。

Population size, Age structure and Development of New Quality Productive Forces

SONG Baolin, SONG Fengxuan   

  1. School of Management/The Center for Common Prosperity Research/The Center for New Quality Productive Forces Development Research, Hebei University, Baoding, Hebei 071000, China
  • Received:2024-05-13 Published:2025-05-21

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摘要： 新质生产力是实现高质量发展和中国式现代化的重要基础,而发展新质生产力需要人力人才的支撑。区别于以往新质生产力的研究,文章将人口变量与发展新质生产力纳入同一框架,以2010—2022年中国城市层面数据为基础,运用面板数据回归分析、链式多重中介效应等方法,探讨了人口规模和年龄结构对发展新质生产力的边际影响,并进一步验证了可能存在的影响路径。研究结果表明,人口数量、出生率与青年人口比重都能积极促进发展新质生产力;人口老龄化对新质生产力的影响具有双重性,老年人口比重越高越不利于发展新质生产力,但健康老年人口比例越高反而越有利于发展新质生产力。基于上述结论,文章从优化人口发展战略出发,提出相关对策建议,以期为加快发展新质生产力,助力实现中国式现代化提供有益参考。

关键词: 人口规模, 年龄结构, 新质生产力, 分位数回归

Abstract: New quality productive forces is an important basis for high-quality development and Chinese path to modernization.The development of new quality productive forces needs the support of human talents. Different from previous studies on new quality productivity, this article integrates population variables and the development of new quality productivity into the same framework. Based on the data of Chinese cities from 2010 to 2022, panel data regression analysis, chain multiple mediation effects and other methods are used to explore the marginal impact of population size and age structure on the development of new quality productivity, and further verify the possible impact paths.The research results indicate that population size, birth rate, and proportion of young people can actively promote the development of new quality productive forces.The impact of population aging on new quality productive forces has a duality. The higher the proportion of elderly population, the more unfavorable of the development of new quality productive forces. However, the higher the proportion of healthy elderly population, the more favorable of the development of new quality productive forces. Based on the above conclusions, the study proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of optimizing population development strategies, aiming to provide valuable insights for accelerating the development of new quality productive forces and facilitating the realization of Chinese modernization.

Key words: population size, age structure, new quality productive forces, quantile regression

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