›› 2017 ›› Issue (02): 31-42.

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An Empirical Research on Price Bubble Dependence among Real Estate Industry Chain and its Crisis Contagion Effect

GUO Wen-wei1, CHEN Shun-qiang1, CHEN Yan-ling2   

  1. 1. Finance Department, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510320, China;
    2. School of Foreign Studies, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510320, China
  • Received:2016-08-16 Online:2017-03-15 Published:2017-03-13

Abstract: This paper makes an empirical research on the dependent structure of the price bubbles from 2000 to 20015 in real estate industry by the means of R-Vine Copula and makes an analysis on the impact caused by the 2006 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2009 European debt crisis. Our research shows that there are some significant bubbles in the real estate chain during the above period. The most serious bubble occurred in the period from 2006 to 2007. Real estate industry is the biggest price bubble and plays an important central connection role which has high dependence on the non-ferrous metal industry, construction and decoration industry, the banking industry and machinery industry. Subprime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis enhance the dependence between the real estate and its related industries, which shows obvious crisis contagion. At the same time, these crises have changed the dependence structure among real estate chain.

Key words: real estate industry chain, price bubble of industry, dependence structure, crisis contagion effect

CLC Number: