Abstract: Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1993 to 2017, this paper uses the method of moment statistics, exploratory spatial data, and the dynamic spatial Dubin panel model to study the spatiotemporal evolution of China's inter-provincial employment pattern. The results show that the evolution of inter-provincial employment pattern has the characteristics of polarization, spatial dependence and spatial stratification. Whether short-term or long-term, the dominant driving factors are industrial deviation, household deviation and economic disparity. Although industry, agriculture, exports and urbanization will affect the pattern, but they will not cause imbalances. In order to achieve a fully balanced development of the inter-provincial economy, the key is to implement the household registration industry layout, accelerate the reform of the household registration system, improve the social security system, steadily advance the transfer and acceptance of industrial location gradients, and promote the coordinated evolution of regional employment patterns.

Key words: employment, space dependence, dynamic spatial dubin panel model