Abstract: This article uses data from the "China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook" to predict future mortality trends based on historical mortality statistics, calculates the expected survival probability of people of all ages and genders living to a certain age, and compares them with the subjective survival probabilities in the CHARLS 2018. Empirical research shows that there is a significant positive correlation between the expected survival probability and the subjective survival probability, indicating that people can aware of the future decline in mortality and can adjust the subjective survival probability. The longevity risk, as an environmental variable, has a positive impact on the individual’s subjective survival probability. The rise in subjective survival probability will not significantly affect the level of savings, but will significantly increase the possibility of personal holdings of commercial endowment insurance and risky financial assets, together with a corresponding increase in annual premiums and holdings amount. The relationship between subjective survival probability and aging financial asset allocation has significant heterogeneity among different age and household register groups.

Key words: longevity risk, subjective survival probability, expected survival probability, aging financial assets