Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics ›› 2023 ›› Issue (02): 11-20.

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Can RCEP Offset The Impact of The China-US Trade War: Reconsideration of China's Economy Security

ZHANG Shao-jun, YU Zhi-ke, ZHENG An-ran   

  1. School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, 361005, China;Sichuan Tuopai Shede Group Co., Ltd., Suining, Sichuan 629209, China;Boc Financial Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201300, China
  • Received:2022-05-09 Online:2023-03-15 Published:2023-03-22

Abstract: By constructing a multi-country and multi-sectoral structure model,this paper quantitatively analyzes the offsetting effect of RCEP on the China-US trade war. The main findings are:(1) RCEP can partially offset the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China's output; among all sectors, the agriculture, food, textile and wooden sectors have benefited more. (2) Regardless of whether it is export or import, RCEP can effectively offset the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China's foreign trade; and with the help of a third country in RCEP, trade ties between China and the United States can again occur, reducing the risk of China-US decoupling. (3) RCEP can also alleviate the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China's real wages. Against the backdrop of the China-US trade war, actively participating in free trade zones and opposing trade protectionism is an important weapon for China to ensure economy security in a more unstable and uncertain world.

Key words: China-US trade war, RCEP, tariff, structure model

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