Abstract: On the basis of explaining the mechanism of livelihood vulnerability and the risk of returning to poverty of the poverty-stricken households, this paper constructs the index system for measuring the risk of returning to poverty of the rural poverty-stricken households and calculates the risk degree of returning to poverty. The empirical results show that the risk of returning to poverty of rural poverty relief families in the whole country is low, and the risk of returning to poverty of rural poverty relief families in the western region is high, and at the same time. Facing the dual dilemma of external risk and weak internal capacity; The risk adaptation ability is the main indicator leading to the risk of returning to poverty. The five capital contribution rates are different. Financial capital and human capital are the main contribution factors to enhance the risk adaptation ability. On this basis, the early warning mechanism of poverty reduction risk can be built from five aspects:information collection and management system, big data platform judgment of early warning level, early warning level verification, early warning measures intervention, and early warning measures evaluation. We can focus on areas prone to return to poverty, prevent the risk of external return to poverty, improve the anti-risk ability of rural poverty-stricken families, and improve the implementation of early warning and assistance mechanism to prevent return to poverty.

Key words: poverty alleviation families, Poverty reduction risk, risk measure