Abstract: New quality productive forces is an important basis for high-quality development and Chinese path to modernization.The development of new quality productive forces needs the support of human talents. Different from previous studies on new quality productivity, this article integrates population variables and the development of new quality productivity into the same framework. Based on the data of Chinese cities from 2010 to 2022, panel data regression analysis, chain multiple mediation effects and other methods are used to explore the marginal impact of population size and age structure on the development of new quality productivity, and further verify the possible impact paths.The research results indicate that population size, birth rate, and proportion of young people can actively promote the development of new quality productive forces.The impact of population aging on new quality productive forces has a duality. The higher the proportion of elderly population, the more unfavorable of the development of new quality productive forces. However, the higher the proportion of healthy elderly population, the more favorable of the development of new quality productive forces. Based on the above conclusions, the study proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of optimizing population development strategies, aiming to provide valuable insights for accelerating the development of new quality productive forces and facilitating the realization of Chinese modernization.

Key words: population size, age structure, new quality productive forces, quantile regression