贵州财经大学学报

›› 2017 ›› Issue (03): 25-33.

• 宏观经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

住房及房价波动对家庭消费影响的再估计——基于条件分位数回归方法

何翠香1, 晏冰1, 方行明2   

  1. 1. 云南民族大学 经济学院, 云南 昆明 650500;
    2. 西南财经大学 经济学院, 四川 成都 611130
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-23 出版日期:2017-05-15 发布日期:2017-05-26
  • 作者简介:何翠香(1986-),女,山东乐陵人,云南民族大学经济学院讲师,博士,研究方向为宏观经济运行与调控;晏冰(1986-),男,江西萍乡人,云南民族大学经济学院讲师,研究方向为金融学;方行明(1956-),男,安徽南陵人,西南财经大学经济学院研究员,博导。研究方向为能源经济学、国民经济学。
  • 基金资助:

    教育部人文社会科学研究项目"通货膨胀、相对价格变动与资源配置效率（编号：15XJC790009）"和云南民族大学校内青年基金项目"人力资本与社会资本对家庭创业的影响研究"资助。

The Impaction of Housing and Housing Price on Household Consumption——Based on Conditional Quantile Regression

He Cui-xiang1, Yan Bing1, Fang Xing-ming2   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming Yunnan 650500, China;
    2. School of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu Sichuan 611130, China
  • Received:2016-09-23 Online:2017-05-15 Published:2017-05-26

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摘要： 基于CHFS2011数据，运用条件分位数回归方法分别估计了住房及房价对家庭居住性消费和非居住性消费的影响，发现对于有房家庭，房价上涨通过财富效应刺激了家庭的居住性消费和非居住消费，而对于无房家庭，房价上涨通过替代效应减少了家庭消费。具体地讲，在整个消费分布上，房价上涨对家庭居住性消费的正向影响随分位数的不断增加呈"U"型，而房价上涨对非居住性消费的正向影响随分位数的不断增加呈逐渐递减趋势。家庭收入、家庭人口、户主受教育水平及城乡分布等变量都是家庭居住性消费和非居住性消费的显著影响因素。

关键词: 房价, 家庭消费, 财富效应, 替代效应, 条件分位数

Abstract: Based on CHFS2011, this paper separately estimated the impaction of housing and housing price on living consumption and non-living consumption. We found that the housing price through the wealth effect stimulated living consumption and non-living consumption for the families which owning house. However, the housing price reduced household consumption through the substitution effect for the homeless families. Specifically, in the entire consumer distribution, the housing price increased family consumption with a "U" shape positively whereas decreased the non-living consumption gradually. The variables of household income, educational level and rural-urban distributions are significantly influenced the family consumption. However, there are some differences of the dependency ratio on the family consumption between living consumption and non-living consumption.

Key words: Housing price, Household consumption, Wealth effect, Substitution effect, Conditional Quantile Regression

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