关键词: 民生财政支出, 经济增长, 人口流动, 门槛模型

Abstract: This paper establishes a nonlinear threshold model which includes population migration factor to study the relationship between the people's well-being financial expenditure and economic growth in different regions based on the provincial panel data in China from 2007 to 2014. We find that there is significant nonlinear relationship between people's well-being financial expenditure and economic growth. When the level of people's well-being financial expenditure enhance, their impact on economic growth will increase firstly and then decrease, and the population migration factor is the important reason which leads to the structural change. With the expansion of the population inflow, the increase of the people's well-being financial expenditure will generate lager economic growth effect, but only a few areas locate in this interval, which means that the allocation of fiscal resources is non-equilibrium. This paper provides a direct empirical evidence for promoting the reform of the fiscal system and establishing the allocation mechanism of fiscal resources to meet the migration of population across regions.

Key words: people's well-being financial expenditure, economic growth, population migration, threshold model