延迟退休、劳动人口负担与主观福利

贵州财经大学学报 ›› 2020 ›› Issue (04): 69-77.

延迟退休、劳动人口负担与主观福利

杨华磊¹, 吴远洋¹, 沈盈希¹, 沈政²

1. 中南财经政法大学公共管理学院, 湖北武汉 430073;
2. 浙江农林大学经济管理学院, 浙江杭州 311300

收稿日期:2020-03-02 出版日期:2020-07-15 发布日期:2020-07-16
作者简介:杨华磊(1986-),男,河南平舆人,博士,讲师,研究方向为劳动与社会保障;吴远洋(1997-),男,河南南阳人,硕士,研究方向为劳动与社会保障;沈盈希(1998-),女,山东潍坊人,学士,研究方向为社会保障;沈政(1988-),男,广东韶关人,博士,讲师,研究方向为劳动经济。
基金资助:
国家社科基金重大项目"长寿风险的宏观经济效应及对策研究"（17ZDA049）；国家自科基金青年项目"农村女性非农就业对生育决策的影响机理与生育支持政策研究"（71903177）；教育部社科一般项目（19YJC790167）。

Delaying Retirement, the Burden of Working Population, Subjective Wellbeing

YANG Hua-lei¹, WU Yuan-yang¹, SHEN Ying-xi¹, SHEN Zheng²

1. School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan Hubei, 430073, China;
2. School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Agricultural and Forestry University, Hangzhou Hubei, 311300, China

Received:2020-03-02 Online:2020-07-15 Published:2020-07-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在当前给付确定的养老制度下，构建一个动态优化模型，模拟延迟退休方案对劳动人口福利的影响效应。研究发现：相比不延迟退休，推迟法定退休年龄政策不仅没有挤占当前和未来的劳动人口福利，相反改善了劳动人口福利，并且这个结果对于参数和养老制度的改变是稳健的，而其中的机制是，延迟退休通过提高未来的人均产出和降低单个劳动人口的抚养和赡养负担，进而提高劳动人口福利水平。为应对60后婴儿潮促发的养老潮，宜尽快出台延迟退休方案，但是为保障未来延迟退休方案不降低劳动人口福利，要适当控制生育成本和养老金替代率的上升幅度。

关键词: 延迟退休, 劳动人口福利, 动态优化, 给付确定, 缴费确定

Abstract: Based on realistic parameters, the simulation finds that delayed retirement not only does not crowd the welfare of the working population, but instead improves the welfare of the working population, and this result is stable for the changes in the parameters and the pension system, and the mechanism is that the delay in retirement increases the per capita output and reduces the burden on the working population. In turn, the welfare level of the working population will be improved. The policy inspiration of the article is to publicize and convey this fact to the public, and to provide a delayed retirement plan as soon as possible in response to the post-60 baby boom. However, it is appropriate to control the rise in fertility costs and pension replacement rates, which can ensure the future delayed retirement plan will not reduce the welfare of the working population.

Key words: delayed retirement, labor population welfare, dynamic optimization, defined benefits, defined contribution

中图分类号:

F062.6

杨华磊, 吴远洋, 沈盈希, 沈政. 延迟退休、劳动人口负担与主观福利[J]. 贵州财经大学学报, 2020(04): 69-77.

YANG Hua-lei, WU Yuan-yang, SHEN Ying-xi, SHEN Zheng. Delaying Retirement, the Burden of Working Population, Subjective Wellbeing[J]. Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, 2020(04): 69-77.

参考文献

[1] 李琴,彭浩然.谁更愿意延迟退休——中国城镇中老年人延迟退休意愿的影响因素分析[J].公共管理学报,2015,12(2):119~128.
[2] 王军,王广州.中国城镇劳动力延迟退休意愿及其影响因素研究[J].中国人口科学,2016(3):81~92.
[3] 阳义南,肖建华.参保职工真的都反对延迟退休吗——来自潜分类模型的经验证据[J].保险研究,2018(11):107~116.
[4] Gruber J, Kevin M, David A. Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World:The Relationship to Youth Employment, Introduction and Summary[J]. Estuarine & Coastal Marine Science, 2009, 5(6):829~830.
[5] Börschsupan A.Early Retirement and Employment of the Young in Germany[J].Journal of the National Medical Association, 2010,63(4):1~8.
[6] Salem M B, Bozio A, Blanchet D. Labor Force Participation by the Elderly and Employment of the Young:The Case of France, in Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World:The Relationship to Youth Employment[M].University of Chicago Press,2010,199~146.
[7] Kalwij A, Kapteyn A, Vos K D. Retirement of Older Workers and Employment of the Young[J]. De Economist, 2010, 158(4):341~359.
[8] 张川川, 赵耀辉. 老年人就业和年轻人就业的关系:来自中国的经验证据[J]. 世界经济, 2014, 37(5):74~90.
[9] 阳义南, 谢予昭. 推迟退休年龄对青年失业率的影响——来自OECD国家的经验证据[J]. 中国人口科学, 2014(4):46~57.
[10] 姚东旻. 产业结构升级背景下延迟退休与失业率的关系[J]. 中国工业经济, 2016,334(1):69~84.
[11] Ford M W. The Unemployment Effects of Proposed Changes in Social Security's Normal Retirement Age[J]. Business Economics, 2006, 41(2):38~46.
[12] Martins P S, Novo A A, Portugal P. Increasing the Legal Retirement Age:The Impact on Wages, Worker Flows and Firm Performance[J].IZA Discussion Paper, 2009,6(1):1~36.
[13] Cremer H, Pestieau P. The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement[J]. International Tax and Public Finance, 2003, 10(4):419~434.
[14] Karlstrom A, Palme M, Svensson I. A Dynamic Programming Approach to Model the Retirement Behaviour of Blue-Collar Workers in Sweden[J]. 2004, 19(6):795~807.
[15] Galasso V. Postponing Retirement:the Political Effect of Aging[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 2008(10):2157~2169.
[16] Martin A S. Endogenous Retirement and Public Pension System Reform in Spain[J]. Economic modelling, 2010, 27(1):336-349.
[17] Lacomba J A, Lagos F. Postponing the Legal Retirement Age[J]. Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2010, 1(3):357~369.
[18] Mastrobuoni G. Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts:Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 2009,93(11):1224~1233.
[19] 袁中美. 延迟退休与养老金替代率的探讨[J]. 人口与经济, 2013(1):101~106.
[20] 曾益, 任超然, 汤学良. 延长退休年龄能降低个人账户养老金的财政补助吗[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2013(12):81~96.
[21] 王晓军, 赵明. 寿命延长与延迟退休:国际比较与我国实证[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2015(3):111~128.
[22] 景鹏, 胡秋明. 生育政策调整、退休年龄延迟与城镇职工基本养老保险最优缴费率[J]. 财经研究, 2016(4):26~37.
[23] Magnani R. A General Equilibrium Evaluation of the Sustainability of the New Pension Reforms in Italy[J]. Research in Economics, 2011, 65(1):5~35.
[24] 彭浩然. 基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度研究[J]. 统计研究, 2012(9):33~38.
[25] Miyazaki K. The Effects of the Raising the Official Pension Age Policy in an Overlapping Generations Economy[J]. Economics letters, 2014, 123(3):329~332.
[26] 林熙, 林义. 延迟退休对我国劳动者养老金收入的影响——基于OptionValue模型的预测[J]. 人口与经济, 2015(6):12~21.
[27] 邹铁钉, 叶航. 普遍延迟退休还是分类延迟退休——基于养老金亏空与劳动力市场的联动效应视角[J]. 财贸经济, 2015(4):134~145.
[28] Echevarria C A. Life Expectancy, Retirement and Endogenous Growth[J]. Economic Modelling, 2004, 21(1):147~174.
[29] Zhang J, Zhang J. Longevity, Retirement, and Capital Accumulation in a Recursive Model with an Application to Mandatory Retirement[J]. Macroeconomic dynamics, 2009, 13(3):327~348.
[30] 金刚. 中国退休年龄的现状、问题及实施延迟退休的必要性分析[J]. 社会保障研究, 2010(2):32~38.
[31] 邵伏军, 苟文均, 匡桦. 中国潜在经济增长率:变化趋势与政策响应[J]. 金融研究, 2014, 414(12):43~58.
[32] 王天宇,邱牧远,杨澄宇. 延迟退休、就业与福利[J]. 世界经济,2016(8):69~93.
[33] 宁磊, 郑春荣. 延迟退休会提高社会福利水平吗?[J]. 财经研究, 2016, 42(8):27~39.
[34] 封进. 延迟退休对养老金财富及福利的影响:基于异质性个体的研究[J]. 社会保障评论, 2017(4):46~59.
[35] 杨华磊, 何凌云, 汪伟. 人口世代更迭与资本红利——中国储蓄率的倒U型之谜[J]. 国际金融研究, 2017(4):24~33.
[36] Barro R J,Becker G S.Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth[J].Econometrica, 1989,57(2):481~501.
[37] Yang HL. The Choice of Pension and Retirement Systems When Post-1960s Baby Boomers Start to Retire in China[J]. China Finance and Economic Review,2016,4(1):1~15.
[38] 黄晨熹. 1964~2005年我国人口受教育状况的变动——基于人口普查/抽查资料的分析[J]. 人口学刊, 2011(4):5~15.
[39] Barro R J, Lee J W. A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2013,104(4):184~198.
[40] 陆旸, 蔡昉. 人口结构变化对潜在增长率的影响:中国和日本的比较[J]. 世界经济, 2014(1):5~31.
[41] 李宾, 曾志雄. 中国全要素生产率变动的再测算:1978~2007年[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2009(3):4~16.
[42] 杨华磊. 世代更迭、人口政策调整与经济增速[J]. 经济科学, 2019, 41(3):30~40.
[43] 康传坤, 楚天舒. 人口老龄化与最优养老金缴费率[J]. 世界经济, 2014(4):139~160.
[44] 彭浩然, 邱桓沛, 朱传奇,等. 养老保险缴费率、公共教育投资与养老金替代率[J]. 世界经济, 2018(7):148~168.
[45] Liao PJ. The One-child Policy:A Macroeconomic Analysis[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2013(2):49~62.
[46] Zhu X, Whalley J, Zhao X. Intergenerational Transfer, Human Capital and Long-term Growth in China under the One Child Policy[J]. Economic Modelling, 2014, 40(6):275~283.
[47] 陈昌兵. 可变折旧率估计及资本存量测算[J]. 经济研究, 2014(12):72~85.