民生财政支出、人口流动与经济增长——基于非线性面板门槛模型的实证分析

›› 2018 ›› Issue (01): 13-24.

民生财政支出、人口流动与经济增长——基于非线性面板门槛模型的实证分析

刘欢

中国社会科学院研究生院, 北京 102488

收稿日期:2017-09-01 出版日期:2018-01-15 发布日期:2018-03-06
作者简介:刘欢(1991-),女,吉林人,中国社会科学院研究生院博士研究生,研究方向为财政理论与实践。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目"人口流动背景下农民公共品需求与有效供给研究"（项目编号：15BJY138）。

People's well-being financial expenditure, population migration and economic growth-An empirical analysis based on nonlinear panel threshold odel

LIU Huan

Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China

Received:2017-09-01 Online:2018-01-15 Published:2018-03-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于2007-2014年的中国省级面板数据，通过建立包含人口流动因素的非线性门槛模型对各地区民生财政支出与经济增长的关系进行了实证考察，研究发现，民生财政支出与经济增长间存在显著的非线性关系。随着民生财政支出水平的提高，其对经济增长的作用呈现先上升后下降的趋势，而人口流动因素则是导致这种结构性变化的重要原因。当地区人口流入规模扩大时，提高民生财政支出水平将带来更大的经济增长效应，但我国仅有少部分地区处于这个区间内，意味着财政资源配置空间失衡。研究结果为进一步推进财政体制改革及建立适应人口跨地区迁移的财政资源配置机制提供了直接的经验证据。

关键词: 民生财政支出, 经济增长, 人口流动, 门槛模型

Abstract: This paper establishes a nonlinear threshold model which includes population migration factor to study the relationship between the people's well-being financial expenditure and economic growth in different regions based on the provincial panel data in China from 2007 to 2014. We find that there is significant nonlinear relationship between people's well-being financial expenditure and economic growth. When the level of people's well-being financial expenditure enhance, their impact on economic growth will increase firstly and then decrease, and the population migration factor is the important reason which leads to the structural change. With the expansion of the population inflow, the increase of the people's well-being financial expenditure will generate lager economic growth effect, but only a few areas locate in this interval, which means that the allocation of fiscal resources is non-equilibrium. This paper provides a direct empirical evidence for promoting the reform of the fiscal system and establishing the allocation mechanism of fiscal resources to meet the migration of population across regions.

Key words: people's well-being financial expenditure, economic growth, population migration, threshold model

中图分类号:

F812.45

刘欢. 民生财政支出、人口流动与经济增长——基于非线性面板门槛模型的实证分析[J]. , 2018(01): 13-24.

LIU Huan. People's well-being financial expenditure, population migration and economic growth-An empirical analysis based on nonlinear panel threshold odel[J]. , 2018(01): 13-24.

参考文献

[1] 傅勇,张晏.中国式分权与财政支出结构偏向:为增长而竞争的代价[J].管理世界,2007(3):4-12.

[2] 付文林.人口流动、增量预算与地方公共品的拥挤效应[J].中国经济问题,2012(1):41-53.

[3] 高培勇,蒋震.新常态下的中国财政:若干趋势性变化[J].财政研究,2016(6):2-15.

[4] 郭庆旺,吕冰洋,张德勇.财政支出结构与经济增长[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003(11):5-12.

[5] 孙文祥,张志超.财政支出结构对经济增长与社会公平的影响[J].上海财经大学学报,2004(6):3-9.

[6] Barro R J.Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5):S103-S125.

[7] Cashin P.Government Spending,Taxes,and Economic Growth[J].Staff Papers,1995(2):237-269.

[8] Landau D.Government Expenditure and Economic Growth:A Cross-Country Study[J].Southern Economic Journal,1983,49(3):783-792.

[9] Lee J W.Capital goods imports and long-run growth[J].Journal of Development Economics,1995,48(1):91-110.

[10] Ghura,Dhaneshwar.Macro policies,External forces,and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa[J].Economic Development & Cultural Change,1995,43(4):759-78.

[11] Afonso A,Jalles J T.Fiscal composition and long-term growth[J].Chapters in Suerf Studies,2013,46(3):349-358.

[12] Romer P M.Endogenous technological change[J].Journal of political Economy,1990,98(5):S71-S102.

[13] Devarajan S,Swaroop V,Zou H F.The composition of public expenditure and economic growth[J].Cema Working Papers,1996,37(2):313-344.

[14] Slemrod J,Gale W G,Easterly W.What do cross-country studies teach about government involvement,prosperity,and economic growth?[J].Brookings papers on economic activity,1995,25(2):373-431.

[15] Nazmi N,Ramirez M D.Publicand privateinvestment andeconomicgrowthin Mexico[J].Contemporary Economic Policy,1997,15(1):65-75.

[16] Mosley P.Globalisation,economic policy and convergence[J].The World Economy,2000,23(5):613-634.

[17] 李君妍,夏祥谦.财政支出结构对经济增长影响的实证检验[J].统计与决策,2015(9):139-142.

[18] 朱迎春.我国公共支出结构经济增长效应的实证研究[J].经济经纬,2013(4):134-138.

[19] 贺俊,吴照(龙天）.政府公共支出结构与内生经济增长——基于省际面板数据的分析[J].上海经济研究,2013(6):14-22.

[20] 郑尚植.关于财政支出结构扭曲对地区经济增长影响的实证分析——基于我国东、中、西部三大区域的省级面板数据[J].西部经济管理论坛,2012(4):67-71.

[21] 周光亮.公共支出结构与经济增长的关联性研究——以山东省为例[J].经济问题,2011(10):41-44.

[22] 张志超,丁宏.优化政府财政支出结构的理论思考[J].经济学动态,2009(4):31-37.

[23] 毛中根,洪涛.政府消费与经济增长:基于1985-2007年中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J].统计研究,2009(8):24-31.

[24] Intriligator M D,Bodkin R G,Hsiao C.Econometric models,techniques and application[M].Prentice-Hall,1996.

[25] 郭玉清,姜磊.财政支出、辖区人口规模与经济增长[J].经济评论,2009(5):35-45.

[26] 傅勇.中国的分权为何不同:一个考虑政治激励与财政激励的分析框架[J].世界经济,2008(11):16-25.

[27] 李成宇,史桂芬,杨锋锋.城镇化进程中地方公共物品的引致需求分析[J].经济经纬,2016(4):8-13.

[28] 贾俊雪,宁静.地方政府支出规模与结构的居民收入分配效应及制度根源[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(8):24-32.

[29] 杨子晖.政府规模、政府支出增长与经济增长关系的非线性研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011(6):77-92.

[30] 张庆君.贸易开放度与经济增长的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2008(8):23-27.

[31] 陆铭.供求的空间匹配[J].上海国资,2016(1):17.