Abstract: Analyzing the origin of the poverty helps to reduce poverty predicted. Based on the CLDS data, this paper firstly measures the rural household's poverty vulnerability; then answer a question that which economic-social status contributes to the poverty vulnerability most, by the method of Shapley Value Decomposition; and finally analyzes the dynamic reason of status transformation in poverty vulnerability using Order Probit model. Results Show that individual factors such as education, non-agricultural job, social capital and immigration, family background including productive loan all help to decrease the poverty vulnerability; however, the disadvantage from intergenerational transfer leads to higher poverty vulnerability. According to the contributions, the difference among individual's education, non-agricultural job and health explain most part of poverty vulnerability. In addition, 9% and 24% of samples have fell into transient and persistent poverty vulnerability respectively, and healthy problems are viewed as the main reason of translating to higher poverty vulnerability. Consequently, the systematic poverty reduction solutions should not only pay attention to the poor's no-agricultural job opportunities right now, but also take some measures including education and health to eliminate the poverty trap in the long time.

Key words: poverty risk, poverty vulnerability, shapley value decomposition