Abstract: Based on the panel data of 41 countries from 1998 to 2017 along the B&R were selected to explore the effect of inbound tourism on international trade, by applying the expanded trade gravity model. Furthermore, the non-linear relationship and national differences of the effects are explored with the dual-threshold model under different per capita income levels. The study found that the inbound tourism of 41 countries along the B&R had a positive effect on the international trade. And with the increase of per capita income, the promotion effect of inbound tourism on export trade decreased and all countries are shifting from profit-seeking stage to consumption stage. The promotion effect on import trade increased first and then decreased. There are 10 countries are in the initial stage with a small and growing effect, 27 countries are in the profit-seeking stage with the maximum effect, and 4 countries are in the consumption stage with the minimum effect. Within the same per capita income range, inbound tourism plays a greater role in promoting export trade than import trade. The main reason is that China's international trade surplus is huge and the development of export trade is obviously faster than that of import trade.During this period, inbound business tourism, as the main form of FDI, also showed a trend of rapid growth. It was more closely related to export trade and played a greater role. When carrying out tourism and trade cooperation with countries along the B&R, China should accurately grasp the national differences in the effects of inbound tourism on international trade and formulate countermeasures for different stages.

Key words: inbound tourism, international trade, threshold effect, national differences