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15 September 2020, Issue 05 (208) Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Leverage Ratio, Threshold and Economic Growth of Residents CHEN Lei, CHEN Meng 2020 (05):  1-9.  Abstract ( 785 )   PDF (3565KB) ( 1287 )   Based on the background of rapid rise of household leverage and "structural deleveraging", this paper establishes threshold regression model and SVAR model to analyze the impact of household leverage on economic growth using the relevant data from 2007 to 2017. The results show that:①residents' consumption, fixed asset investment, residents' leverage ratio and non-financial enterprises' leverage ratio have typical threshold effect on GDP, and the threshold value of residents' leverage ratio in China is 0.31; ②when residents' leverage ratio is lower than the threshold value, their own and residents' consumption can promote economic growth; when it is higher than the threshold value, the promoting effect decreased obviously. ③When the leverage ratio of residents is lower than the threshold, the negative effect of fixed asset investment on the economy cannot pass the significance test; when it is higher than the threshold, the fixed asset investment can effectively play a role in economic growth. ④No matter how to choose the leverage ratio of residents, the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. ⑤In the long run, economic growth will decrease. The reason is that the accumulation of debt pressure has restrained consumption. With the decrease of consumption, the non-financial enterprise sector has to reduce production, and passive de leveraging has restrained economic growth. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trade cost, Technology Spillover, and Environmental Pollution HE Xiong-lang, WANG Shu-ran 2020 (05):  10-23.  Abstract ( 606 )   PDF (5493KB) ( 1105 )   The equilibrium structure of economic geography is the result of combined effect of both internal and external forces, so this paper no longer regards region as "point" without spatial dimensions and holds that trade cost exist in both inside and outside of the region, and local technology spillover effect and environmental pollution effect are also different within and outside a region. Based on these foundations, the new economic geography model developed in this paper shows that:Firstly, the strengthening of local technology spillover effect and trans-boundary environmental pollution effect promotes industrial agglomeration whereas the strengthening of local environment pollution effect and the trans-boundary technology effect lead to industrial dispersion, and the increase of intraregional trade freeness also help to form a decentralized spatial pattern. In addition, the core-periphery equilibrium may be exist under the circumstance that the substitution elasticity between industrial goods is too low or too high. Secondly, not only can the stable internal asymmetric equilibrium exist alone, but also co-exist with the internal asymmetric and core-periphery equilibrium or with the symmetric and core-periphery equilibrium when the trade freeness is within a certain range. Thirdly, the stable symmetric equilibrium may exist in both situations whether trade freeness is low or high, even under certain conditions, the symmetric structure is the only stable equilibrium structure no matter how the trade freeness changes. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Threshold Effect and National Differences of Inbound Tourism on International Trade-An Empirical Study Based on the the Per Capita Income of 41 Countries Along the B&R CHENG Cheng, ZHOU Ze-qi, HONG Kai-bang 2020 (05):  24-33.  Abstract ( 706 )   PDF (1470KB) ( 1231 )   Based on the panel data of 41 countries from 1998 to 2017 along the B&R were selected to explore the effect of inbound tourism on international trade, by applying the expanded trade gravity model. Furthermore, the non-linear relationship and national differences of the effects are explored with the dual-threshold model under different per capita income levels. The study found that the inbound tourism of 41 countries along the B&R had a positive effect on the international trade. And with the increase of per capita income, the promotion effect of inbound tourism on export trade decreased and all countries are shifting from profit-seeking stage to consumption stage. The promotion effect on import trade increased first and then decreased. There are 10 countries are in the initial stage with a small and growing effect, 27 countries are in the profit-seeking stage with the maximum effect, and 4 countries are in the consumption stage with the minimum effect. Within the same per capita income range, inbound tourism plays a greater role in promoting export trade than import trade. The main reason is that China's international trade surplus is huge and the development of export trade is obviously faster than that of import trade.During this period, inbound business tourism, as the main form of FDI, also showed a trend of rapid growth. It was more closely related to export trade and played a greater role. When carrying out tourism and trade cooperation with countries along the B&R, China should accurately grasp the national differences in the effects of inbound tourism on international trade and formulate countermeasures for different stages. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Does the Belt and Road Initiative Prohibit Real Enterprises Shifting From Real to Virtual Economy ZHOU Bo-le, GE Peng-fei, WU Xiao-xu 2020 (05):  34-45.  Abstract ( 685 )   PDF (2084KB) ( 1499 )   China's economy has entered a stage of high-quality development. To build a modern economic system, we must focus on the real economy. However, the shifting from real economy to virtual economy must hamper the high-quality economic development. Drawing on the quasi-natural experimental environment formed by the Belt and Road Initiative, the paper empirically examines the impact and path of the Belt and Road Initiative on real enterprises by DID model. The research finds that the Belt and Road Initiative can significantly reduce the degree of financialization of real enterprises, and the result remains robust after adopting a series of stability tests. The channel analysis indicates that the Belt and Road Initiative can significantly reduce the degree of financialization of real enterprises by relieving the financial constraints and improving the real profit rate. Furthermore, the Belt and Road Initiative can significantly improve the return of financial assets. The heterogeneous analysis shows that the Belt and Road Initiative has a significant inhabiting effect on state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Procyclical Characteristic of Bank Credit and Effectiveness of Counter-cyclical Regulation DONG Shi-zheng, ZHENG Jian-ming 2020 (05):  46-52.  Abstract ( 664 )   PDF (1423KB) ( 1417 )   Taking 381 commercial Banks from 2007 to 2017 as samples, this paper studies the cyclical and regulatory effectiveness of credit behavior. The research shows that there is pro-cyclical credit behavior of commercial banks in China, but large banks and joint-stock banks have stronger pro-cyclicality. With the increase of capital adequacy ratio, the pro-cyclical effect of bank credit is weakened, which shows the effectiveness of counter-cyclical regulation. For regulators, different types of banks should be treated differently, and different measures should be taken. At the same time, the regulation of capital adequacy rate should be strengthened in the economic cycle, reasonable capital adequacy rate standards should be set up, and the concept of supervision to prevent systemic financial risks should be established. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Does accounting conservatism alleviate the PEAD DU Yan, WANG Sheng-nian 2020 (05):  53-63.  Abstract ( 656 )   PDF (1536KB) ( 1313 )   The paper investigates the influence of accounting conservatism on Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) by sampling A-shares listed firms from 2005 to 2018. The empirical results show that accounting conservatism can significantly reduce the PEAD. The institutional investors and analysts as an important intermediary in the capital market, their attentions has played a positive role in the influence of accounting conservatism on PEAD, which is manifested that accounting conservatism plays a more obvious role in alleviating PEAD in both companies with a high proportion of institutional shareholding and those with analysts' attention. Further research explores the mechanism of accounting conservatism relieving PEAD. The results show that accounting conservatism alleviates PEAD by improving the quality of accounting information. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Mechanism of impact of social capital on family firm innovation with the moderation of family involvement WAN Li-shuang 2020 (05):  64-72.  Abstract ( 536 )   PDF (2955KB) ( 1015 )   This research focuses on the joint effect of family social capital and non-family social capital on family firm innovation, and whether this joint effect is stronger than the individual effect of family social capital or non-family social capital, based on the theoretical insights from social capital related research. suggesting that the presence of a strong dominant coalition (family) creates the conditions for a positive reciprocal influence between social communities within an organizational setting. Our study also highlights the moderating effect of family involvement in these relationships. This study uses partial least squares (PLS) modeling in order to analyze the data of 318 survey questionnaires. The results show that different forms of internal social capital have complementary effects on innovation, based on the general view of resource complementarity. Family social capital and non-family social capital have a positive impact on family firm innovation, and the joint effect is better than the single effect of family social capital or non-family social capital; Family control (family ownership and family management) moderates the relationship between family social capital/non-family social capital and family firm innovation, the highest level of innovation is achieved when family and non-family SC and family control are high; Generational involvement moderates the relationship between family social capital/non-family social capital and family firm innovation, the highest level of innovation is achieved when family and non-family SC are high, while generational involvement is low. The research conclusion provides useful experience for improving the effectiveness of relationships within family firms. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the mechanism of environmental dynamics on Enterprise Performance-Intermediary effect based on technology orientation LI Zhao-hong, ZHU Zhi-yong 2020 (05):  73-79.  Abstract ( 523 )   PDF (1091KB) ( 1254 )   In the context of high-quality development, Chinese enterprises are facing more and more uncertainties in the external economic environment, and the macro policy environment and industry environment are also becoming complex, dynamic and uncertain. How to understand and use technology-oriented strategy to adapt to the dynamic competitive environment has become an urgent problem in enterprise practice, and also the focus of academic research. Based on this, this paper studies the relationship between environmental dynamics and technology orientation, and puts the three into a unified analysis framework, constructs the intermediary effect model of technology orientation between environmental dynamics and enterprise performance, and makes empirical analysis through structural equation model. The results show that technology orientation has a positive correlation with corporate performance, and technology orientation has a significant intermediary effect on the relationship between environmental dynamics and corporate performance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Relationship between Perceived Organizational Support and Employee Creativity-The Effects of Relative Perceived Organizational Support and Affective Commitment HUANG Yong, YANG Jie, HU Sai-sai 2020 (05):  80-87.  Abstract ( 707 )   PDF (2497KB) ( 1434 )   Although perceived organizational support has been viewed to be an important antecedent of employee creativity, the extant findings are inconsistency. Based mainly on the self-enhancement perspective, social comparison, and social exchange theory, this article explicated the influencing processes of perceived organizational support on employee creativity, empirically tested the moderating role of relative perceived organizational support, and the nonlinear relationship between affective commitment and employee creativity. Using a sample from 458 supervisor-subordinate dyads, the results showed that relative perceived organizational support significantly moderated the relationship between perceived organizational support and employee creativity, the relationship between affective commitment and employee creativity is inverted U-shaped, and there is an instantaneous indirect effect of perceived organizational support on creativity via affective commitment. These furthered the mechanisms underlying the perceived organizational support and its boundary conditions, and deepened the analysis between affective commitment and employee creativity. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Foreign Direct Investment and Haze Pollution Governance in China-Analysis from the Perspective of Factor Market Distortion ZHOU Jie-qi, LIU Sheng-long 2020 (05):  88-99.  Abstract ( 589 )   PDF (1657KB) ( 1467 )   Combining rent-seeking theory with local government competition theory, taking the interaction between foreign companies and local governments as the starting point, this paper constructs a logical framework of "FDI-factor market distortion-haze pollution", based on China's urban panel data from 2004 to 2018, this paper constructs a dynamic spatial Dubin model and a spatial simultaneous equation model to test hypothesis. The research finds that:(1) FDI not only reduces haze pollution through industrial structure upgrade, environmental technology spillover (intra-regional or interregional), and spatial spillover originating from the division of global value chains, but also intensifies haze pollution through factor market distortion(intra-regional or interregional) and economic scale. Ultimately, FDI is conducive to haze management; (2) In order to attract FDI, local governments have a "bottom-to-bottom competition" in the factor market, exacerbating the distortion of the factor market; (3) Factor market distortion weakens the industrial structure upgrade effect and environmental technology spillover effect of FDI, and stimulates its economic growth effect, which is not conducive to exerting its positive effect in reducing haze pollution; (4) Haze pollution has significant path-dependent characteristics and space spillover effect, and inhibits the inflow of FDI that prefers high-quality environment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Does High-Speed Railway Improve the Efficiency of Urban Green Development-An Empirical Test Based on Difference in Difference Model RAN Qi-ying, ZHANG Jin-ning, YANG Xiao-dong 2020 (05):  100-110.  Abstract ( 1145 )   PDF (1860KB) ( 2360 )   Based on the balanced panel data of 271 prefecture level cities in China from 2006 to 2017, this paper uses the data envelopment analysis method to measure the efficiency of urban green development, and then uses the difference in difference model and the intermediary effect model to test the impact and mechanism of high-speed rail on urban green development efficiency. The results show that:(1) on the whole, the opening of high-speed rail has significantly improved the efficiency of urban green development. This conclusion is still valid after alleviating endogenous problems and carrying out a number of robustness tests. From the perspective of dynamic effect, the pull of high-speed rail to urban green development efficiency is increasing year by year. (2) The mechanism analysis shows that the opening of high-speed rail improves the efficiency of urban green development by means of innovation effect, structural effect and configuration effect, among which innovation effect plays the strongest role, while structural effect has a weak impact. (3) The heterogeneity study found that the pull effect of high-speed rail on urban green development efficiency is more significant in the eastern region and large and medium-sized cities. (4) Based on the analysis of the expansion of geographical distance circle, it shows that the promotion effect of the opening of high-speed railway on the green development efficiency of cities in different circles shows an inverted U-shaped trend, and reaches the maximum at 200 km away from the central city. References | Related Articles | Metrics